Scottsdale Real Estate Market

Higher Rates and Short Supply: The State of Real Estate in 2022

June 24, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

The last two years caught many of us off guard—and not just because of the pandemic. They also ushered in the hottest housing market on record, with home prices rising nationally by nearly 19% in 2021, driven primarily by low mortgage rates and a major supply shortage.¹

In Scottsdale and the surrounding areas, we have seen prices increase at even higher numbers.

But while some had hoped 2022 would bring a return to normalcy, the U.S. real estate market continues to boom, despite rising interest rates and decreasing affordability.

So what’s driving this persistent demand? And is there an end in sight?

Here are three factors impacting the real estate market right now. Find out how they could affect you if you’re a current homeowner or plan to buy or sell a home this year.

MORTGAGE RATES ARE RISING FASTER THAN EXPECTED

Over the past couple of years, homebuyers have faced intense competition for new homes—in part due to historically low mortgage rates that were a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep the economy afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, in response to a concerning level of inflation, the Fed is now reversing those efforts by raising the federal funds rate. And as a result, mortgage rates are rising, as well. Few experts predicted, though, that mortgage rates would go up as quickly as they have.

In January 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association projected that rates would reach 4% by the end of this year.² By mid-April, however, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had already hit 5%, up from around 3% just one year prior.³ On a $400,000 mortgage, that 2% difference could translate into an additional $461 per monthly payment.

Since then, mortgage rates have continued on an upward trend. So what impact are these rising rates having on demand? While many buyers had hoped for a cooling effect, experts warn that may not be the case.

Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing market research firm Zanda, told Fortune magazine, “Rising mortgage rates are having a counterintuitive effect on the housing market. Home shoppers are actually sprung into action in an attempt to buy a home before mortgage rates rise any higher.”⁴

Since inventory remains low, the resulting “race” has kept the homebuying market highly competitive–at least for now.

What does it mean for you?

While current 30-year fixed mortgage rates represent an increase over previous months, they remain well below the historical average of 8%.⁵ As inflation across the economy continues, the Fed is likely to raise rates further this year. Buyers should act fast to secure a good mortgage rate. We’d be happy to refer you to a lender who can help. We have a list of excellent lenders who have done a great job with our clients and will be sure to do the same for you.

For sellers, speed is also of the essence. The pool of potential buyers may shrink as mortgages become more expensive. And if you plan to finance your next home, you’ll want to act quickly to secure a favorable rate for yourself. Contact us today to discuss your options.

HOME PRICES KEEP CLIMBING

History shows that higher interest rates don’t necessarily translate to lower home prices. In fact, home prices rose 5% between 1980 and 1982, a period of significantly higher mortgage rates and inflation.⁵

Forecasters expect that home prices will continue to go up throughout 2022, though likely at a slower pace than the 18.8% increase of the last 12 months.⁴ Bank of America predicts that prices will be up approximately 10% by the end of this year, while Fannie Mae estimates 11.2%.^6,7

In addition to limited supply and a race to beat rising mortgage rates, home values are also climbing because of positive economic indicators, like low unemployment.⁸ Plus, rents are soaring – up 17% from a year ago – which is prompting more first-time homebuyers to enter the market.⁹ Add to that the continued popularity of remote work, and it’s easy to see why property prices continue to surge.

However, it’s not all bad news for prospective homebuyers. Economists expect that as mortgage rates rise, the rate of appreciation will continue to taper, though the effect may be gradual.

“Eventually mortgage rates will slow down home prices,” according to Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University interviewed by Marketwatch.¹⁰ “We should not see rapid upticks in prices as mortgage rates rise.” Forecasters agree—Fannie Mae expects price increases to slow to 4.2% in 2023.⁷

What does it mean for you?

While the pace of appreciation is likely to decrease next year, home prices show no signs of going down. However, current labor shortages are leading to higher salaries and better job opportunities for many workers. You may find that your income growth outpaces home prices, making homeownership more affordable for you in the future.

For homeowners, the outlook’s even brighter. You could find yourself sitting on a nice pile of equity. Contact us for a free home value assessment to find out.

INVENTORY REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW

As noted, one of the largest hurdles to homeownership is a lack of inventory. According to a February 2022 report by Realtor.com, there’s an expanding gap between household formation and home construction, which has resulted in a nationwide shortage of 5.8 million housing units.¹¹

The origins of this shortage date back to the 2008 housing crisis, during which crashing home values led contractors to stop building new properties—a trend that has not been fully reversed.¹²

That decline in home construction also resulted in a decrease in the number of home building professionals, a trend that was exacerbated by job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, many builders are limited by their ability to find qualified labor.

However, we are seeing a much-needed uptick in inventory in Scottsdale and the Phoenix market, which is great news.

Another major challenge is a staggering increase in the cost of materials. Pandemic-related supply chain shortages have been a significant driver, with home building material costs rising on average 20% on a year-over-year basis. The price of framing lumber alone has tripled since August 2021.¹³

These trends add tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of a typical home. Factors like a lack of buildable land in many areas, restrictive zoning, and a shortage of developers are also contributing to the issue.¹⁴

Most home buying experts agree that the lack of inventory is the primary factor driving rising housing prices and unprecedented competition for homes. With available housing units near four-decade lows, the end of the current housing boom is not yet in sight.¹⁵

What does it mean for you?

Prospective buyers should be prepared to compete for a home, since low inventory can lead to multiple offers. You may also need to expand your search parameters.On a more positive note, the number of homes for sale in Scottsdale and Phoenix is on the rise, which should help ease the competition for these homes. If you’re ready to look, we’re ready to help.

For sellers, the picture is rosier. In this strong market, your home may be worth more than you realize. Contact us to find out how much your home could sell for in today’s market.

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate trends can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

If you’re considering buying or selling a home, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We can help you assess your options and make the most of this unique real estate landscape.

Sources:

Phoenix and Scottsdale AZ Luxury Condo Sales – May 2022

June 21, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

Luxury Condo Sales in Scottsdale and Phoenix – May 2022

Even though we are seeing a cooling off in the general real estate market in Scottsdale and Greater Phoenix, luxury condo sales continue to post very strong results.

This report analyzes the sales performance of luxury condos in Scottsdale and Phoenix. If the condo was listed for $1 million or more, it will be included in this report.


Luxury Condo Market - May 2022
Phoenix and Scottsdale AZ
	All Luxury Condos	Scottsdale Luxury Condos	Phoenix Luxury Condos
Units on the Market
- Number of Units for Sale	46	40	6
- Average Asking Price	$2,421,848	$2,571,175	$1,426,333
- Average Asking Price Per Sq. Ft.	$924.37	$975.84	$581.22
- Average Days on Market*- Active	59	66	13

UCB Sales (Under Contract - Accepting Backup Offers)
- Number of Units UCB	12	10	2
- Average UCB Price	$2,348,833	$1,981,100	$4,187,500
- Average UCB Price Per Sq. Ft.	$857.50	$873.58	$777.09

Pending Sales
- Number of Units Pending	52	48	4
- Average Pending Price	$2,396,705	$2,477,399	$1,428,375
- Average Pending Price Per Sq. Ft.	$782.27	$797.41	$600.51

Luxury Condo Sales
- Number of Units Sold	13	10	3
- Average Sales Price	$1,851,923	$1,960,000	$1,491,667
- Sales Price to List Price	94.7%	96.0%	89.1%
- Average Sold Sq. Feet	2,327	2,200	2,750
- Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.	$862.51	$956.89	$547.91
- Average Days on Market* - Sold	72	90	13
- Highest Sale Price	$3,050,000	$3,050,000	$1,750,000
- Lowest Sale Price	$1,050,000	$1,050,000	$1,200,000
- Percentage of Total Sales	100%	77%	23%

ACTIVE LISTINGS AT THE END OF MAY

The number of units for sale dropped again. April closed out with forty units for sale, which is quite a bit lower than the fifty-four condos for sale at the end of February.

The highest-priced unit is located in the new development called Ascent at the Phoenician. This unit has three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms and is 3,996 square feet. It was listed for $4,850,000.

The least expensive luxury condo for sale was in Scottsdale’s Eagle’s Pass. It has three bedrooms and bathrooms and 2,386 square feet and was listed for $1 million.

UCB* LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

The number of UCB contracts continues to climb. April ended up with ten UCBs and May ended with twelve. Ten of the twelve were located in Scottsdale.

UCB Condos in Scottsdale

Landmark Condominiums – Three units went into UCB status in April.
- Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 3,045 square feet. Asking price was $1,600,000.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,690 square feet. Asking price was $1,699,000.
- Four bedrooms, three bathrooms, 3,946 square feet. Asking price was
  $2,575,000.
Tower Residences at Hotel Valley Ho – Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,363 square feet. Asking price was $1,200,000.
Optima Kierland
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,754 square feet. Asking price was $1,695,000.
- Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,686 square feet. Asking price was $1,750,000.
- Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,366 square feet. Asking price was $1,797,000.
- Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,686 square feet. Asking price was $1,250,000.
Scottsdale Waterfront Residences – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 3,139 square feet. Asking price was $3,495,000.
ICON in Silverleaf – Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,750,000.

UCB Condos in Phoenix

Esplanade Place – Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 3,334 square feet. Asking price was $2,175,000.
The Residences at 2211 Camelback – Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,875 square feet. Asking price was $6,200,000.

PENDING LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Pending sales saw another jump in May. April closed out with forty-two pending sales and May ended with fifty-two. Again, this is the highest we have seen this figure. A majority of these homes are in communities being built out, which is causing this number to swell.

Forty-eight of the units were located in Scottsdale and the remaining four were in Phoenix.

Scottsdale Pending Luxury Condos

Optima Camelview
- One bedroom and bathroom, 806 square feet. Asking price was $1,000,000.
- Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,275 square feet. Asking price was $1,088,800.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,911 square feet. Asking price was $1,299,000.
- Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,710 square feet. Asking price was $1,375,000.
- Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 2,465 square feet. Asking price was $1,750,000.
Optima Kierland – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,980 square feet. Asking price was $2,250,000.
SOHO Condos – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,330 square feet. Asking price was $1,400,000.
The Reserve – This community is under construction.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,004,500.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,011,500.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,012,450.
- Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,016,000.
- Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,026,500.
- Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,063,000.
- Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,159,000.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,271,450.
- Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,279,900.
Ascent at the Phoenician – This is another fantastic development underway.
- One bedroom, one and one-half bathrooms, 1,698 square feet. Asking price was $1,475,000.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,847 square feet. Asking price was $1,600,000.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,374 square feet. Asking price was $2,050,000.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,679 square feet. Asking price was $2,285,000.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,679 square feet. Asking price was $2,395,000.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,867 square feet. Asking price was $3,975,000.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,100,000.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,945 square feet. Asking price was $4,950,000.
Seven at Desert Mountain – This community is also under construction.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,505,002.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,530,700.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,536,004.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,612,768.
- Two bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,702 square feet. Asking price was $1,705,300.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,774,200.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,787,350.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,809,900.
- Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,835,850.
ICON at Silverleaf – Currently under construction.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $1,995,000.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,150,000.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,900,000.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,500,000.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,625,000.
- Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,700,000.
- Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,800,000.
- Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,900,000.
- Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,175,000.
- Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,200,000.
- Three bedrooms, four bathrooms 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,350,000.
- Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $6,900,000.
- Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $7,700,000.
- Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $7,718,000.
- Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $8,350,000.

Phoenix Pending Luxury Condos

One Lexington – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,288 square feet. Asking price was $1,295,000.
Bridgewood – Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,968 square feet. Asking price was $1,295,000.
Fairway Lodge at the Biltmore – Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,329 square feet. Asking price was $1,425,000.
Esplanade Place – Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 3,000 square feet. Asking price was $1,698,500.

LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Sales were down by one compared to April to end the month with thirteen sales. Ten of the thirteen were located in Scottsdale.

Scottsdale Luxury Condo Sales

Optima Kierland
- Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,763 square feet. Asking price was $1,770,000 and it sold for list price.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,579 square feet. Asking price was $1,750,000 and it sold for list price.
- Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,657 square feet. Asking price was $1,195,000 and it sold for $1,150,000.
- Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,579 square feet. Asking price was $2,149,000 and it sold for $2,100,000.
- Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,018 square feet. Asking price was $3,195,000 and it sold for $3,050,000.
Optima Camelview
- Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,327 square feet. Asking price was $1,099,900 and it sold for $1,050,000.
- Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,727 square feet. Asking price was $1,500,000 and it sold for $1,375,000.
Plaza Lofts at Kierland – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,162 square feet. Asking price was $1,770,000 and it closed for list price.
Main Street Place – Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 4,122 square feet. Asking price was $2,795,000 and it closed for $2,400,000.
Landmark Condominiums – Four bedrooms and bathrooms, 4,065 square feet. Asking price was $2,499,000 and it closed for $2,495,000.

Phoenix Luxury Condo Sales

The Residences at 2211 Camelback – Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,980 square feet. Asking price was $1,925,000 and it sold for $1,750,000.
Fairway Lodge at the Biltmore – Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,376 square feet. Asking price was $1,500,000 and it sold for $1,525,000.
The Residences at 2211 Camelback – Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,894 square feet. Asking price was $1,595,000 and it sold for $1,200,000.

Learn More About Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos

Search Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos for Sale

Disclaimer: Days on market figures are cumulative days on market. Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 6/1/2022 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at resale luxury condos in Scottsdale and Phoenix over the past 12 months. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. There may be new condo inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright ©2022 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

June 17, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

If you’re following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.

The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says:

“The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”

Home Showings Then and Now

The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below):

The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels.

And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.

Existing Home Sales Then and Now

Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below):

Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well.

It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this:

“. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”

Bottom Line

If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about our local market and what it means for you when you buy or sell this year.

How Buying or Selling a Home Benefits the Economy and Your Community

June 14, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, chances are you’re focusing on the many extraordinary ways it’ll change your life. But do you know it has a large impact on your community too?

To measure that impact, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a report each year to highlight just how much economic activity a home sale generates. The chart below shows how the sale of both a newly built home and an existing home impact the economy:

As the visual shows, a single home sale can have a significant effect on the overall economy. To dive a level deeper, NAR also provides a detailed look at how that varies state-by-state for newly built homes (see map below):

You may be wondering: how can a single home sale have such a major effect on the economy?

For starters, there are multiple industries that play a role in the process. Numerous contractors, specialists, lawyers, town and city officials, and so many other professionals are all necessary at various stages during the transaction. Every individual you work with, like your trusted real estate advisor, has a team of professionals involved behind the scenes.

That means when you buy or sell a home, you’re leaving a lasting impression on the community at large. Let the knowledge that you’re contributing to those around you while also meeting your own needs help you feel even more empowered when you decide to make your move this year.

Bottom Line

Homebuyers and sellers are economic drivers in their community and beyond. Let’s connect so you have a trusted real estate advisor on your side if you’re ready to get started. It won’t just change your life; it’ll make a powerful impact on your entire community.

Quick Video Update of the Scottsdale Real Estate Market – May 2022

June 10, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

– May 2022 Scottsdale Housing Market Video –

Here is a one-minute video overview of the Scottsdale, Arizona real estate market that covers the month of May.

May 2022 – Video

Scottsdale Active Listings

Even though we are still suffering from low inventory, we have been seeing an uptick in the number of homes for sale, which is great news for buyers.

Inventory was up a healthy 24% between May 2021 and May 2022. And we also saw a month-over-month increase of 30%. All good news.

Median List Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median list price May 2022

Now we will take a peek at home prices for homes on the market. The median list price tells you the midpoint price of all currently listed homes. Fifty percent will be priced higher and fifty percent will be priced lower.

The median list price for May was $1.35 million. This is lower than May 2021’s $1.43 million and down quite a bit from April’s $1.55 million.

Days on Market

Days on market is an indicator of the pace of home sales in a market. You will also see it referenced as DOM. If the DOM is high, homes are staying on the market a little longer. If the DOM is low, homes are selling at a brisker pace.

May’s DOM was 29 days. This is very low and has been since the Scottsdale market got hot. And looking year-over-year, days on market was down by 22%.

Median Sales Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median sales price May 2022

Similar to the median list price, the median sales price is the midpoint of home prices of homes that sold.

May’s median sales price in Scottsdale was $1.08 million. This is up from the previous year’s $922K, but down slightly from last month’s $1.1 million.

Number of Homes Sold

This first image is comparing year-over-year home sales. Sales were down 22% from the previous year. And although low inventory may be playing a part, we are seeing decreased demand from buyers which could account for this drop.

Scottsdale Home Sales May 2022 versus 2021

This second image is looking at it from a month-over-month perspective. Sales were essentially level with May coming in with one fewer sale than April.

Scottsdale home sales April versus May 2022

We hope that you found this video and commentary helpful as you gather more information to make smart informed real estate decisions.

For more Scottsdale real estate information or if you have any questions about the local area, feel free to contact Joyce at (480) 209-7843 or Joyce@LiveBetterinScottsdale.com.

Click to watch other videos on our Live Better in Scottsdale YouTube Channel.

Interested in other stats for our market? Visit our Real Estate Market Update page.

Disclaimer: Data deemed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Sellers Have an Opportunity with Today’s Home Prices

June 7, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homeowners began to wonder if the value of their homes would fall. Here’s the good news. Historically, when mortgage rates rise by a percentage point or more, home values continue to appreciate. The latest data on home prices seems to confirm that trend.

According to data from CoreLogic, home price appreciation has been re-accelerating since November. The graph below shows this increase in home price appreciation in green:

Sellers Have an Opportunity as Home Prices Re-Accelerate | MyKCM

This is largely due to an ongoing imbalance in supply and demand. Specifically, housing supply is still low, and demand is high. As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homebuyers rushed to make their purchases before those rates could climb higher. The increased competition drove home prices up even more. Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Home price growth continued to gain speed in early spring, as eager buyers tried to get in front of the mortgage rate surge.”

And experts say prices are forecast to continue appreciating, just at a more moderate pace moving forward. A recent article from Fortune says:

“. . . the swift move up in mortgage rates . . . doesn’t mean home prices are about to crash. In fact, every major real estate firm with a publicly released forecast model . . . still predicts home prices will climb further this year.”

What This Means for You

If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know you have a great opportunity to list your home and capitalize on today’s home price appreciation. As prices rise, so does the value of your home, which gives your equity a big boost.

When you sell, you can use that equity toward the purchase of your next home. And at today’s record-level of appreciation, that equity may be enough to cover some (if not all) of your down payment.

Bottom Line

History shows rising mortgage rates have not had a negative impact on home prices. Now is still a great time to sell your house thanks to ongoing price appreciation. When you’re ready to find out how much equity you have in your current home and what’s happening with home prices in your local area, let’s connect.

Scottsdale AZ Single Family Home Sales – May 2022

June 3, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

– May 2022 Scottsdale Homes for Sale and Home Sales –

Things changed quite a bit on the inventory front in May. We saw a big jump in the number of homes on the market, which is great news for buyers. On top of that, sales activity remained strong.

SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES ACTIVITY – MAY 2022

We track the following four sales metrics on a monthly basis:

– Single-family homes for sale – Orange Line – How many homes were on the market at the end of the month.
– Under contract, but accepting backup offers (UCB) – Gray Line – How many homes were in UCB status at the end of the month.*
– Pending home sales – Yellow Line – How many sales were pending at the end of the month.*
– Home Sales – Blue Line – How many homes sold during the month.

MAY 2022 RESULTS

Scottsdale Homes for Sale: We saw inventory jump over 34% between April and May. This is after a 23% jump the month before. These additional homes for sale are sorely needed.
UCB (Under contract, accepting backup offers): The number of UCBs fell slightly. This was the second to lowest we have seen these in the past year.
Pending Homes Sales in Scottsdale: The number of pending sales fell quite a at bit to close out the month at 310.
Scottsdale Home Sales: Home sales were down slightly in May, but still posted a strong performance.

Here are two more sales metrics that give a little more information about the state of Scottsdale’s real estate market.

Percent Change Month Over Month – This metric tracks sales performance on a month-over-month basis. For example, pending sales were down 22.3% between the end of April and May.

Sales Price to List Price – This is a quick and easy way to monitor sales prices. Here, we are comparing average asking prices to the average of what those homes sold for. In May, buyers paid a premium of 1.6% over asking, showing that we still have a strong sellers market.

*Figures for active homes for sale, UCB sales and pending sales are based on the numbers at the end of the month.

Curious about your buying power? Click on the link to learn more.

Search Scottsdale AZ Homes for Sale

Here is a sampling of some of the homes on the market, or click the link above to see all of the homes for sale.

Disclaimer: Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 6/1/2022. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright © 2022 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for the Housing Market?

May 31, 2022 By Heather Tawes Nelson

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a house, you’re at an exciting decision point. And anytime you make a big decision like that, one thing you should always consider is timing. So, what does the rest of the year hold for the housing market? Here’s what experts have to say.

The Number of Homes Available for Sale Is Likely To Grow

There are early signs housing inventory is starting to grow and experts say that should continue in the months ahead.

We have been seeing this in Scottsdale and the Greater Phoenix region. Over the past few months, more and more homes have come onto the market. We are still well below where we would normally be, but this is great news.

According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“The gap between this year’s homes for sale and last year’s is one-fifth the size that it was at the beginning of the year. The catch up is likely to continue, . . . This growth will mean more options for shoppers than they’ve had in a while, even though inventory continues to lag pre-pandemic normal.”

As a buyer, having more options is welcome news. Just remember, housing supply is still low, so be ready to act fast and put in your best offer up front.
As a seller, your house may soon face more competition when other sellers list their homes. But the good news is, if you’re also buying your next home, having more options to choose from should make that move-up process easier.

Mortgage Rates Will Likely Continue To Respond to Inflationary Pressures

Experts also agree inflation should continue to drive up mortgage rates, albeit more moderately. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“… ongoing inflationary pressure remains likely to push mortgage rates even higher in the months to come.”

As a buyer, work with trusted real estate professionals, including your lender, so you can learn how rising mortgage rate environments impact your purchasing power. It may make sense to buy now before it costs more to do so, if you’re ready.
As a seller, rising mortgage rates are motivating some homeowners to make a move up sooner rather than later. If you’re planning to buy your next home, talk to a trusted real estate advisor to decide how to time your move.

Home Prices Are Projected To Continue To Climb

Home prices are forecast to keep appreciating because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers in the market. That said, experts agree the pace of that appreciation should moderate – but home prices won’t fall. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Prices throughout the country have surged for the better part of two years, including in the first quarter of 2022. . . Given the extremely low inventory, we’re unlikely to see price declines, but appreciation should slow in the coming months.”

As a buyer, continued home price appreciation means it’ll cost you more to buy the longer you wait. But it also gives you peace of mind that, once you do buy a home, it will likely grow in value. That makes it historically a good investment and a strong hedge against inflation.
As a seller, price appreciation is great news for the value of your home. Again, lean on a professional to strike the right balance of the best conditions possible for both selling your house and buying your next one.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re a homebuyer or seller, you need to know what’s happening in the housing market, so you can make the most informed decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss your goals and what lies ahead, so you can pick your best time to make a move.

Scottsdale Real Estate Market

Luxury Condo Sales in Scottsdale and Phoenix – May 2022

ACTIVE LISTINGS AT THE END OF MAY

UCB* LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

UCB Condos in Scottsdale

UCB Condos in Phoenix

PENDING LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Scottsdale Pending Luxury Condos

Phoenix Pending Luxury Condos

LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Scottsdale Luxury Condo Sales

Phoenix Luxury Condo Sales

Home Showings Then and Now

Existing Home Sales Then and Now

Bottom Line

Bottom Line

– May 2022 Scottsdale Housing Market Video –

May 2022 – Video

Scottsdale Active Listings

Median List Price for Scottsdale Homes

Days on Market

Median Sales Price for Scottsdale Homes

Number of Homes Sold

What This Means for You

Bottom Line

– May 2022 Scottsdale Homes for Sale and Home Sales –

SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES ACTIVITY – MAY 2022

MAY 2022 RESULTS

The Number of Homes Available for Sale Is Likely To Grow

Mortgage Rates Will Likely Continue To Respond to Inflationary Pressures

Home Prices Are Projected To Continue To Climb

Bottom Line

Footer

About Us

Scottsdale Real Estate Email Updates

From the Blog