Scottsdale AZ Real Estate & Lifestyle

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Scottsdale Real Estate Market

Quick Video Update of the Scottsdale Real Estate Market – June 2023

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June 2023 Scottsdale Housing Market Video –

Here is a one-minute video overview of the Scottsdale, Arizona real estate market that covers the month of June.

June 2023 – Video


Scottsdale Active Listings

Scottsdale homes for sale June 2023

Inventory continues to fall as it has each month since January. This can partly be attributed to already low inventory combined with seasonality, as some homeowners take their homes off of the market during the summer months.

The image above is a year-over-year comparison. The number of homes for sale at the end of June 2023 was down 22% when looking at June 2022.

And if you look at it on a month-over-month basis, inventory was down 14% from the end of May.

Median List Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median list price June 2023

If you aren’t sure of what the median listing price is, it is the exact midpoint of the listing prices for homes. Half of the homes have higher listing prices and half have lower listing prices.

In June the median listing price in Scottsdale was $1.48 million. This is up slightly over the previous month’s $1.47 million, but up quite a bit over June 2022’s $1.21 million.  

Days on Market

Scottsdale homes days on market June 2023

The Days on Market calculation shows you on average how long it is taking from homes being listed to being sold. You will often see it referred to as DOM.

If the Days on Market is a high number, then homes are lingering on the market for a longer time. Conversely, if you see a low Days on Market, homes are selling at a faster pace.

In June, the DOM for Scottsdale was 69 days. This represents a 97% increase from June 2022. However, to clarify, the DOM of 35 days in June 2022 was incredibly low as we were coming out of a very hot market.

Median Sales Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median sales price June 2023

We took a look at the median listing price above and now we will take a look at the median sales price.

Scottsdale’s median sales price in June was $1.05M. This is slightly lower than the previous month’s median sales price of $1.07M and is also lower than June 2022’s median sales price of $1.1M.

Number of Homes Sold

Scottsdale home sales June 2022 vs June 2023

Now we will look at actual home sales.

Above, you will see a year-over-year comparison of home sales. We saw a 7% increase in the number of home sales.

Scottsdale home sales May versus June 2023

Here is the information looking at month-over-month home sales. Sales were down slightly, 2%, compared to the previous month.

We hope that you found this video and commentary helpful as you gather more information to make smart informed real estate decisions.

For more Scottsdale real estate information or if you have any questions about the local area, feel free to contact Joyce at (480) 209-7843 or Joyce@LiveBetterinScottsdale.com.

Click to watch other videos on our Live Better in Scottsdale YouTube Channel.

Interested in other stats for our market? Visit our Real Estate Market Update page.

Disclaimer: Data deemed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Renovate or Relocate? 3 Questions To Help You Decide

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Does your current home no longer serve your needs?

ready to relocate

If so, you may be torn between relocating to a new home or renovating your existing one. This can be a difficult choice, and there’s a lot to consider—including potential costs, long-term financial implications, and quality of life.

A major remodel can be a major commitment. From hiring contractors to selecting materials to managing a budget, it can take a tremendous amount of time and energy—not to mention the ordeal of living through construction or relocating to a temporary residence.

On the other hand, moving is notoriously taxing. In fact, in one survey, 40% of respondents viewed buying a new home as ”the most stressful event in modern life.”1

So which is the better option for you? Let’s take a closer look at some of the factors you should consider before you decide.

  1. What Are Your Motivations for Making a Change?

It’s possible that some of the limitations of your current home can be addressed with a renovation, but others may require a move.

Renovate

Certain issues, like dated kitchens and bathrooms, are fairly easy to remedy with a remodel—and the results can be dramatic. In many cases, a relatively minor renovation can significantly increase your enjoyment of your home.

Other shortcomings can be more challenging to fix but are worth exploring so that you know your options. For example, if your home feels cramped or it lacks certain rooms, you might be able to make changes like installing an extra bathroom, adding a dedicated office, or finishing an attic or basement. You may even be able to build an accessory dwelling unit or extension to accommodate a multi-generational family.

In fact, many Americans have remodeled their homes to meet changing needs since the start of the pandemic. According to the National Association of the Remodeling Industry, 90% of their members reported increased demand for renovations starting in 2020, and 60% reported that the scale of remodeling projects has grown.2

However, the feasibility and cost of these larger changes will depend on factors ranging from zoning and permitting to your home’s current layout. Speaking with an architect or a contractor can help you make an informed decision. Let us refer you to one of our trusted partners to ensure you receive the best possible service.

Relocate

Of course, sometimes, even rebuilding your home from the ground up wouldn’t solve the problem. For example, moving may be the only solution if you’ve switched jobs and now face a lengthy commute or if you need to live closer to an aging family member.

Conversely, if the shift to remote work has opened up your location options, you may wish to seize the opportunity to relocate to a new locale. A 2022 study found that nearly five million Americans had already moved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased flexibility from remote work, and nearly 19 million more were planning to move in the near future for the same reasons.3 

Moving may also be the best option, even when you’re happy with your geographic location. A local move may make sense if you’re looking for a larger backyard or significantly more space. Similarly, some frustrations—like living on a busy street or a long way from a grocery store—can’t be addressed with a renovation. We are well-versed in this area and can help you determine whether another neighborhood might suit you and your family better.

  1. Which Option Makes the Most Financial Sense?

Renovating and relocating both come with costs, and it’s wise to explore the financial implications of each choice before you move forward.

Renovate

The costs of a renovation can vary widely, so it’s vital to get several estimates from contractors upfront to understand what it might take to achieve your dream home.

Be sure to consider all of the potential expenditures, from materials and permits to updates to your electrical and plumbing systems. It’s also prudent to add 10-20% to your total budget to account for unexpected issues.4  If you plan to DIY all or part of your renovation, don’t forget to factor in the value of your time.

Renovations can also come with hidden expenses. These might include:

  • Additional home insurance
  • Short-term rental or hotel if you need to move out during the renovation
  • Storage unit for possessions that need to be out of the way
  • Dining out, laundry service, and other essentials if you can’t access appliances at home

Remodeling choices can also impact the long-term value of your home. Some projects may increase your home’s value enough to outweigh your investment, while others could actually hurt your home’s resale potential.

For example, although you may enjoy the additional living space, garage conversions aren’t typically popular with buyers.5 Refinishing hardwood floors, on the other hand, brings an average return of 147% at resale.2  The specific impact of a renovation will depend on a number of factors, including the quality of work, choice of materials, and buyer preferences in your area. We can help you assess how a planned project is likely to affect the value of your home.

Relocate

The cost of a new home, of course, will vary significantly depending on the features you’re seeking. However, you may find that it’s cheaper to move to a home that has everything you want than it is to make major changes to your existing one.

For example, adding a downstairs bedroom suite or opening up a closed floor plan could cost you more than it would to buy a home that already has those features. On the other hand, simpler changes and updates probably won’t outweigh the expense of a relocation.

If you’re considering a move, speak with a real estate agent early in the process. We can assess your current home’s value and estimate the price of a new home that meets your needs. This will help you set an appropriate budget and expectations.

It’s important to remember that the cost of buying a new home doesn’t end with the purchase price. You’ll also need to account for additional expenditures, including closing and moving costs and the fees involved with selling your current home. And don’t forget to compare current mortgage rates to your existing one to understand how a different rate could impact your monthly payment.

However, keep in mind that the interest rate on a mortgage is typically lower than the rate on other loan types—so you could pay less interest on a new home purchase than you would on remodel.6 We’re happy to refer you to a lending professional who can help you explore your financing options.

  1. Which Option Will Be the Least Disruptive to Your Life?

A final—but critical—consideration is the time and hassle involved with each option since both renovating and relocating involve a significant amount of each.

Renovate

Don’t underestimate the time and effort involved in a large-scale renovation, even if you choose to hire a general contractor. You will still need to consider and make a number of decisions. For example, even a fairly basic kitchen remodel can involve a seemingly-endless selection of cabinets, tile, countertops, paint colors, fixtures, hardware, and appliances.

And don’t assume that you will get out of packing and unpacking if you stay in your current home. Most renovations—from kitchens to bathrooms to flooring replacement—require you to remove your belongings during the construction process.

The time frame for a remodel is another consideration. High demand for contractors and ongoing material shortages can mean a long wait to get started. And once the project is in progress, you can expect that it will take a couple of weeks to several months to complete.7

Contemplate whether you will be able to live in your home while it’s being renovated and how that would impact your routine. For example, being without a functional kitchen for months can be frustrating, inconvenient, and expensive (since you’ll need to purchase prepared food). Remember that delays are inevitable with construction, and consider what additional challenges they could present.

Relocate

Of course, finding a new home and selling your current one also takes a significant amount of time and energy. According to the National Association of Realtors’ 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, the average buyer searched for 10 weeks and toured a median of five homes.8

However, in many cases, the timeline can still be shorter than a major renovation. Once you find a home that works for you, it typically takes between 30 and 60 days to close if you’re taking on a mortgage—and the process is even faster if you’re paying with cash.9  Plus, you can look for your dream home without the inconvenience of living in a construction zone.

However, a move comes with its own stress and disruptions. If you’re selling your current home, you’ll need to prep it for the market and keep it ready and available for showings. Once you’ve found a place, the packing and moving process takes time and work, as does settling into a new home—especially if it’s in a different neighborhood.

Fortunately, we are here to help make the moving process as easy as possible, if you choose to pursue that route. We can help you find a property that meets all your needs, sell your current one for top dollar, and refer you to some excellent moving companies that can help pack and transport your belongings.

WHATEVER YOU DECIDE, WE CAN HELP

The decision to renovate or relocate can be overwhelming—but this choice also presents a powerful opportunity to improve your quality of life.

There’s a lot to consider, from how renovations could impact your home’s resale value down the road to your neighborhood’s current market dynamics. We’re happy to help you think through your options. Get in touch for a free consultation!

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

  1. HousingWire –
    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/46384-americans-say-buying-a-home-is-most-stressful-event-in-modern-life/
  2. National Association of the Remodeling Industry –
    https://cdn.nar.realtor//sites/default/files/documents/2022-remodeling-impact-report-04-19-2022.pdf?_gl=1*3pfs0m*_gcl_au*NTU2MDQ0MzAyLjE2ODMyMzgzMTY
  3. Business Insider –
    https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-people-moved-because-of-remote-work-since-2020-2022-3
  4. Forbes –
    https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/contractor/home-renovation-costs/
  5. U.S. News & World Report –
    https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/10-home-renovations-that-can-decrease-the-value-of-your-home
  6. Bankrate –
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-vs-home-equity-loan/#differences
  7. House Beautiful –
    https://www.housebeautiful.com/home-remodeling/a25588459/home-renovation-timeline/
  8. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers
  9. Forbes –
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/how-long-does-it-take-to-close-on-a-house/

Where Will You Go If You Sell? Newly Built Homes Might Be the Answer.

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Do you want to sell your house, but hesitate because you’re worried you won’t be able to find your next home in today’s market? You’re not alone, but there’s some good news that may ease your worries. New home construction is up and is becoming an increasingly significant part of the housing inventory.

That means when you go to put your house on the market this summer, considering newly built homes is crucial for expanding the options you’ll have for your next move.

Near-Record Percentage of New Home Inventory

Newly built homes today make up a near-record percentage of the total number of homes available for sale (see graph below):

In fact, as the data shows, newly built homes now make up 31% of the total for-sale inventory. Over the past couple of decades, newly built homes made up an average of only around 13% of total housing inventory from 1983 to 2019.

That means the percentage of the total available homes that are newly built is over two times higher than the norm.

Why This Matters to You 

Overall, the supply of homes for sale is still low. And when there’s limited supply, it’s crucial to explore all of your available choices. New-home construction has emerged as a game changer with increasing inventory. Not to mention, recent data shows it’s gaining even more momentum as more newly built homes are underway and will be coming to the market in the months ahead.

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), highlights the importance of newly built homes for those looking to buy in today’s housing market. Dietz states:

“With limited available housing inventory, new construction will continue to be a significant part of prospective buyers’ search in the quarters ahead.”

Don’t overlook this growing market segment and risk missing out on great opportunities to find your ideal home. Since new home construction accounts for roughly 31% of total for sale inventory, you could be cutting nearly one in three options from your search if you don’t consider newly built homes. 

If you’re looking to make a move, a local real estate agent can help you sell your current house and explore newly built options in your area. They have the expertise you need to handle both sides of the process so you can move out of your current house and into your brand-new dream home.

Bottom Line

Now’s the time to sell your house and take advantage of the momentum that’s building in new home construction. Let’s connect so that you have a guide throughout the selling and buying process. Together, we can make your transition to a newly built home a reality.

Scottsdale AZ Single Family Home Sales – June 2023

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– June 2023 Scottsdale Homes for Sale and Home Sales –

We are now seeing our seasonal slowdown in the Scottsdale market. Sales were quite strong in June, but there were fewer contracts in the pipeline as we closed out the month.

SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES ACTIVITY – JUNE 2023

Each month, we look at the following things to see how the market is performing:

– Single-family homes for sale – Orange Line – The number of homes actively for sale at the end of the month.
– Under contract, but accepting backup offers (UCB) – Gray Line – How many UCB contracts there were at the end of the month.*
– Pending home sales – Yellow Line – The number of pending sales at the end of the month.*
– Home Sales – Blue Line – How many homes sold over the course of the month.

JUNE 2023 RESULTS

Scottsdale homes for sale June 2023
  • Scottsdale Homes for Sale: The number of homes for sale fell again in June. Inventory has been trending down each month since January 2023.
  • UCB (Under contract, accepting backup offers): The number of UCB contracts fell after a strong performance in May. We are still in the 200+ range, but I anticipate we will see a downward trend due to seasonality.
  • Pending Homes Sales in Scottsdale: We also saw the number of pending sales slip between May and June. Again, I attribute this to seasonality.
  • Scottsdale Home Sales: Home sales were very strong again in June and only declined slightly. June was the second-highest performing month in the past year.

In this last part, I have posted two more things we track on a monthly basis.

Scottsdale real estate market June 2023

Percent Change Month Over Month – The top image shows how things change on a monthly basis. This is a quick and easy way to keep track of market trends. For example, the number of homes for sale has been trending down on a month-over-month basis since February 2023.

Sales Price to List Price – The image below is another simple measurement that can give us data on market trends. Here we look at average listing prices compared to average sales prices. In May, it was 97%, which means on average, buyers saw a discount of 3% off of asking prices.

*Figures for active homes for sale, UCB sales and pending sales are based on the numbers at the end of the month.

Curious about your buying power? Click on the link to learn more.

Search Scottsdale AZ Homes for Sale

Disclaimer: Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 7/1/2023. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright © 2023 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

Scottsdale AZ Luxury Home Market – May 2023

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– Scottsdale Luxury Home Market Performance for May 2023 –

May was a very good month in terms of sales of luxury homes in Scottsdale. New contracts came in with mixed results and inventory is on its way down again.

In this report, we examine the Scottsdale luxury home market, where all of the homes were on the market with a price of one million dollars or more. Since different price points can have different results, we have separated the information into four price ranges.

– MAY 2023 –

Scottsdale Homes Priced Between $1,000,000 – $1,499,999

Scottsdale Homes for Sale between $1 and $1.5 million May 2023

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: Inventory has fallen every month since the beginning of the year. In January, there were 255 homes for sale in this price range. At the end of May, there were 168 homes for sale.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: After a strong April, the number of UCBs fell 45.2%. However, forty-two is not that poor a performance as it comes in over the 12 month average.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: We also saw pending sales fall in May, but not at as steep as a rate as UCBs. It also came in ahead of the 12 month average.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: May was a gangbuster month for home sales in this price range. We saw 114 home sales, the highest level we have seen in the past year.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 95.8%- On average, buyers saw a discount of 4.2% off of list price.

Scottsdale Homes Priced Between $1,500,000 – $1,999,999

Scottsdale Homes for Sale between $1.5 and $2 million May 2023

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: Inventory was down slightly in May to close out the month at 112. This is below the 12 month average of 129.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: UCB contracts fell in this price range as well. The month closed out with twenty-one which is just barely above the 12 month average.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of pending sales fell slightly to thirty-nine.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: Home sales were excellent in May, coming in at the second highest we have seen them in the past year.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 96.1% – On average, buyers saw a discount of 3.9% off of list price.

Scottsdale Homes Priced Between $2,000,000 – $2,999,999

Scottsdale Homes for Sale between $2 and $3 million May 2023

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: The number of homes for sale has been falling slowly over the past few months.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of UCBs was down in May, but still came in at the third-highest level in the past twelve months.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: Pendings were down slightly from April, but still posted the second-highest performance over the past year.
Scottsdale Homes Sold: Sales in this price range were excellent. An impressive forty-three homes sold in May, by far outperforming all of the other months.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 95.4% – On average, buyers saw a discount of 4.6% off of list price.

Scottsdale Homes Priced $3,000,000+

Scottsdale Homes for Sale over $3 million May 2023

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: Inventory closed out the month just above the 200 mark. This is higher than the 12 month average of 185.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of UCBs were down a little, but still performed strongly.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: Unlike the other price ranges, we saw the number of pendings increase in May. The month closed with forty-one pending sales.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: And once again, we have another gangbuster sales month. Forty homes sold for over $3 million in May. The next closest month was June 2022 with thirty-three sales.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 94.0% – On average, buyers saw a discount of 6% off of list price.

If you would like additional detail on home sales activity, please visit our Scottsdale Luxury Home Market Reports page and click on the downloadable “Scottsdale Market Trends” report.

Search Scottsdale Luxury Homes for Sale

Disclaimer: Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 6/1/2023 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at single-family luxury resale homes in Scottsdale AZ over the last 12 months. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This blog represents the opinion of the author. No warranties expressed or implied.
Copyright ©2023 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

Are Home Prices Going Up or Down? That Depends…

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Media coverage about what’s happening with home prices can be confusing. A large part of that is due to the type of data being used and what they’re choosing to draw attention to. For home prices, there are two different methods used to compare home prices over different time periods: year-over-year (Y-O-Y) and month-over-month (M-O-M). Here’s an explanation of each. 

Year-over-Year (Y-O-Y):
  • This comparison measures the change in home prices from the same month or quarter in the previous year. For example, if you’re comparing Y-O-Y home prices for April 2023, you would compare them to the home prices for April 2022.
  • Y-O-Y comparisons focus on changes over a one-year period, providing a more comprehensive view of long-term trends. They are usually useful for evaluating annual growth rates and determining if the market is generally appreciating or depreciating.
Month-over-Month (M-O-M):
  • This comparison measures the change in home prices from one month to the next. For instance, if you’re comparing M-O-M home prices for April 2023, you would compare them to the home prices for March 2023.
  • Meanwhile, M-O-M comparisons analyze changes within a single month, giving a more immediate snapshot of short-term movements and price fluctuations. They are often used to track immediate shifts in demand and supply, seasonal trends, or the impact of specific events on the housing market.

The key difference between Y-O-Y and M-O-M comparisons lies in the time frame being assessed. Both approaches have their own merits and serve different purposes depending on the specific analysis required.

Why Is This Distinction So Important Right Now? 

We’re about to enter a few months when home prices could possibly be lower than they were the same month last year. April, May, and June of 2022 were three of the best months for home prices in the history of the American housing market. Those same months this year might not measure up. That means, the Y-O-Y comparison will probably show values are decpreciating. The numbers for April seem to suggest that’s what we’ll see in the months ahead (see graph below):

That’ll generate troubling headlines that say home values are falling. That’ll be accurate on a Y-O-Y basis. And, those headlines will lead many consumers to believe that home values are currently cascading downward.

However, on a closer look at M-O-M home prices, we can see prices have actually been appreciating for the last several months. Those M-O-M numbers more accurately reflect what’s truly happening with home values: after several months of depreciation, it appears we’ve hit bottom and are bouncing back.

Here’s an example of M-O-M home price movements for the last 16 months from the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report (see graph below):

Why Does This Matter to You?

So, if you’re hearing negative headlines about home prices, remember they may not be painting the full picture. For the next few months, we’ll be comparing prices to last year’s record peak, and that may make the Y-O-Y comparison feel more negative. But, if we look at the more immediate, M-O-M trends, we can see home prices are actually on the way back up.

There’s an advantage to buying a home now. You’ll buy at a discount from last year’s price and also before prices start to pick up even more momentum. It’s called “buying at the bottom,” and that’s a good thing.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices, or if you’re ready to buy before prices climb higher, let’s connect.

Phoenix and Scottsdale AZ Luxury Condo Sales – May 2023

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Luxury Condo Sales in Scottsdale and Phoenix – May 2023

The Scottsdale/Phoenix luxury condo market had another excellent month of sales in May. 

In this analysis, we look at luxury condo sales in Scottsdale and Phoenix. To be a part of this report, the condo had to have a list price of one million dollars or more. 

ACTIVE LISTINGS AT THE END OF MAY

Inventory fell again in May, closing out at 48, compared to 60 at the end of March and 54 at the end of April. The vast majority of listings (44) were located in Scottsdale.

The highest-priced listing has held this spot for a couple of months now. Located in The Plaza Lofts at Kierland, this penthouse comes with three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms and 4,059 square feet. It was listed for $5,650,000.

The lowest-priced listing was located in the Scottsdale Waterfront Residences community. It was a two bedroom and bathroom unit with 1,439 square feet. The asking price was $1,199,900.

UCB* LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

UCB contracts were the only place we saw a decrease in May. The month ended with four UCBs in the pipeline and all of them were located in Scottsdale.  

UCB Condos in Scottsdale

  • Portico Condominiums– Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,657,000.
  • Optima Kierland – Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,487 square feet. Asking price was $1,939,000.
  • Scottsdale Waterfront Residences
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,265 square feet. Asking price was $1,665,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,860 square feet. Asking price was $5,500,000.

PENDING LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Pending sales were up quite a bit in May. They jumped up to 67 the end of the month. This large backlog is due to a number of projects currently being built out in Scottsdale. 

Scottsdale Pending Luxury Condos

  • Optima Camelview – Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,727 square feet. Asking price was $1,499,000.
  • Optima Kierland – Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,258 square feet. Asking price was $1,150,000.
  • Scottsdale Waterfront Residences – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,117 square feet. Asking price was $1,795,000.
  • Portico Scottsdale Condominiums – This is a new development in North Scottsdale.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,939 square feet. Asking price was $1,025,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,939 square feet. Asking price was $1,060,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,939 square feet. Asking price was $1,064,650.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,425,600.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,431,000.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,444,500.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,582,200.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,637,100.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,658,500.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,660,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,669,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,695,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,695,600.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,728,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,738,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,814,400.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,879,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,890,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,899,000.
  • The Reserve – This community is under construction.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,012,450.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,159,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,271,450.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,279,900.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,349,000.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,447,500.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,532,900.
  • Ascent at the Phoenician – This is another fantastic development underway.
    • One bedroom, one and one-half bathrooms, 1,698 square feet. Asking price was $1,475,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,847 square feet. Asking price was $1,600,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,374 square feet. Asking price was $2,050,000.
    • One bedroom, two bathrooms, 1,677 square feet. Asking price was $2,195,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,679 square feet. Asking price was $2,285,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,679 square feet. Asking price was $2,395,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,425,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,592 square feet. Asking price was $3,100,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,867 square feet. Asking price was $3,975,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,100,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,450,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,500,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,750,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,895,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,945 square feet. Asking price was $4,950,000.
  • ICON at Silverleaf – Currently under construction.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $1,995,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,150,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,500,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,625,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,700,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,750,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,800,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,900,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,900,000.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,995,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,170 square feet. Asking price was $2,995,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,175,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $3,195,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,195,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,200,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,350,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,867 square feet. Asking price was $3,600,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $6,900,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $7,700,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $7,718,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 5,534 square feet. Asking price was $8,000,000
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $8,350,000. 

Phoenix Pending Luxury Condos

  • One Lexington – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,288 square feet. Asking price was $1,295,000.
  • The Residences at 2211 Camelback – Two bedrooms, three bathrooms and 3,000 square feet. Asking price was $1,695,000.

LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Sales continued to be strong. There were twelve sales in May, up from eight in April. 

Scottsdale Luxury Condo Sales

  • ICON/Sterling at Silverleaf – Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,170 square feet. Asking price was $2,995,000 and it sold for list price.
  • Optima Kierland
    • Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,365 square feet. Asking price was $1,295,000 and it sold for $1,280,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms and 2,000 square feet. Asking price was $1,875,000 and it sold for $1,790,000.
  • The Reserve
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,011,500 and it sold for $1,182,815.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,063,000 and it closed for $1,222,550.
  • Seven at Desert Mountain
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,721 square feet. Asking price was $2,090,000 and it sold for $2,040,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,721 square feet. Asking price was $2,395,000 and it sold for $2,225,000.
  • Optima Camelview – Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,915 square feet. Asking price was $2,250,000 and it sold for $2,000,000.

Phoenix Luxury Condo Sales

  • One Lexington – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms and 2,835 square feet. Asking price was $1,695,000 and it closed for list price.
  • Esplanade Place – Two bedrooms and bathrooms and 2,417 square feet. Asking price was $1,199,875 and it closed for list price.
  • Two Biltmore Estates – Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,860 square feet. Asking price was $2,800,000 and it sold for list price.

Learn More About Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos

Search Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos for Sale 

Disclaimer: Days on market figures are cumulative days on market. Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 6/1/2023 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at resale luxury condos in Scottsdale and Phoenix over the past 12 months. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.  There may be new condo inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright ©2023 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

National Real Estate Market Update for 2023

By

National Real Estate Market Update 2023

There’s an old adage in real estate: location, location, location. But ever since the Federal Reserve began its series of inflation-fighting interest rate hikes last year, a new mantra has emerged: mortgage rates, mortgage rates, mortgage rates.

Higher rates had the immediate impact of dampening homebuyer affordability and demand. But this year, we’re seeing further repercussions. While analysts expected listing inventory to swell as sales declined, instead, homeowners have been pushing off plans to sell because they feel beholden to their existing, lower mortgage rates.

So what impact is this reduced demand and low supply environment having on home values? And what can we expect from the real estate market in the coming months and years? Here are several key indicators that help to paint a picture of the current market and where it’s likely headed.

HOME SALES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY EARLY NEXT YEAR

The weather isn’t the only thing that heats up in the spring and summer. Nationally, it tends to be the busiest time in real estate. But this year, the peak season got off to a slow start, with sales declines in both March and April.1,2 Existing home sales in April were down 3.4% from the previous month—and 23.2% from a year earlier.2

What’s causing this market slowdown? Industry experts attribute it to several factors, including near-record home prices, high mortgage rates, and low inventory.

According to National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. Yet, at the same time, multiple offers on starter homes are quite common, implying more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. It’s a unique housing market.”1

However, some industry experts believe the market is poised for a comeback. Forecasters at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict that home sales will continue to fall through Q3 before rising in Q4 and throughout next year.3  Analysts at Fannie Mae expect the recovery to take a bit longer, picking up in early 2024.

Meanwhile, home builder confidence is already up, as purchases of new single-family homes surged in March and April to a 13-month high.5 Builder incentives are helping to boost sales: According to the National Association of Home Builders, in May, 54% reported using them to win over budget-conscious buyers.6

What does it mean for you?  A slower pace of sales has given buyers some breathing room. If you hated the frenzy of the pandemic-era real estate market, now might be a better time for you to shop for a home. We can help you evaluate your options and make an informed purchase.

If you plan to sell your home, prepare yourself for less foot traffic and a longer sales timeline than you may have found a year ago. It will also be crucial to enlist the help of a skilled agent who knows how to draw in buyers. Reach out for a copy of our multi-step Property Marketing Plan.

PROPERTY VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

Some good news for buyers: While home builder sales climbed in April, the median new-house price fell to $420,800, an 8.2% decrease from a year ago.5 Meanwhile, the median existing-home price dropped to $388,800, down 1.7% year-over-year. Notably, existing-home prices rose in parts of the country but fell in the South and West.2

“Roughly half of the country is experiencing price gains,” explains Yun. “Multiple-offer situations have returned in the spring buying season following the calmer winter market. Distressed and forced property sales are virtually nonexistent.”2

The average national home price remains about 40% higher than it was in early 2020, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.7 A tight housing supply has helped to buoy prices amidst a slowdown in sales.

“While it varies from region to region, home prices at the national level may fall 1% or 1.5% by the end of the year, so not much,” Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, told Yahoo Finance in April.8

Record levels of home equity will help to stabilize the sector and prevent a wave of foreclosures, even as prices moderate, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.9

“But for those who have owned a home for more than a year or two, their home will remain a rock-solid investment. And once affordability is restored, the next generation of households can become homeowners. Getting there is critical to the financial well-being of those households, their communities, and the broader economy,” writes Zandi in The Washington Post.9

What does it mean for you?  Prices have softened in certain market segments—and motivated sellers are out there and willing to make deals. We can help you find your next home and negotiate a great price.

If you’re a homeowner, the surge in home values has slowed, but you’re likely still sitting on a nice pile of equity. Reach out for a free assessment to find out how much your home is currently worth.

LISTING INVENTORY IS LOW, BUT NEW CONSTRUCTION IS ON THE RISE

Unsold existing home inventory rose 7.2% from March to April, according to NAR. At the current level of demand, this equates to 2.9 months of supply, which is still well below the 5 to 6 months of inventory required for a “balanced” market.2

Inventory remains tight despite the market slowdown because many would-be sellers are reluctant to give up their lower mortgage rates. “Affordability is not only an issue for first-time homebuyers, but also for many repeat buyers who still need to take on a mortgage,” explains Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.10

In a recent survey by the home listing site, 82% of respondents who are planning to both buy and sell a home said they feel “locked in” by their low rate.11

In some areas, new home construction is helping to fill the supply gap. “Currently, one-third of housing inventory is new construction, compared to historical norms of a little more than 10%,” according to National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz.12

And more new homes are in the pipeline, after a builder slowdown last year. Single-family housing starts rose 1.6% from March to April (seasonally adjusted) and new construction permits hit a seven-month high.13

What does it mean for you?  Inventory remains tight, but less competition means more choice and negotiating power for buyers. If you’ve had trouble finding a home in the past, it may be time to take another look. We can help you explore both new and existing homes in our area.

Sellers are enjoying reduced competition right now, as well. However, the longer you wait to list, the more competition you’re likely to face. And if you feel locked in by your current, lower mortgage rate, consider this: If you roll your equity gains into a down payment on your next home, you could possibly lower your monthly payment. Reach out to discuss your options.

MORTGAGE RATES MAY FINALLY COME DOWN

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a peak of 7.08% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and since then it’s primarily floated between 6 and 7%.14 However, there are signs that rates could trend lower later this year.

“Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates, eventually,” Yun predicted in a recent statement. “Mortgage rates slipping down to under 6% looks very likely toward the year’s end.”15

Other leading economists agree. In its May forecast, Fannie Mae speculates that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will continue to decline, averaging 6.0% in Q4 2023 and 5.4% by Q4 2024.4 Meanwhile, the MBA predicts rates will fall even faster, averaging 5.6% by Q4 2023 and 4.8% by Q4 2024.3

On May 3, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate by another quarter point—its 10th consecutive increase since March 2022. However, in its corresponding statement, the Fed omitted language from its previous release about “additional policy firming,” leaving some analysts to speculate that the rate hikes may be over.16

Although mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, a decision by the Fed to pause rate increases could have a positive effect. In the meantime, buyers should shop around multiple lenders to find the best rate—and buckle up for what could be an exciting ride.

What does it mean for you?  Mortgage rates may finally trend down, which would be great news for buyers. But, a decrease in rates could correspond with an increase in competition and prices. If you start searching now, you’ll be prepared to make an offer when the time is right. We can help you negotiate a great deal and potential seller incentives.

If you’re planning to sell, this is good news for you, too. But, there are several factors to consider when determining the right time to list your home. Reach out for a consultation so we can help you chart the best course.

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

If you’re considering buying or selling a home, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals.

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

  1. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-slid-2-4-in-march
  2. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-faded-3-4-in-april
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association –
    https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-may-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=4bf1d1a7_1
  4. Fannie Mae –
    https://www.fanniemae.com/media/47006/display
  5. U.S. Census Bureau –
    https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
  6. National Association of Home Builders –
    https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/05/lack-of-existing-inventory–boosts-builder-confidence-to-key-marker
  7. New York Times –
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/business/spring-housing-market.html?
  8. Yahoo Finance –
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-increase-after-weeks-of-declines-160015631.html
  9. The Washington Post –
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/22/housing-prices-put-some-out-of-the-market/
  10. CNBC –
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/home-sales-fell-in-march-amid-volatility-in-mortgage-rates.html
  11. Realtor.com –
    https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-q1-sellers-survey-btts/
  12. National Association of Home Builders –
    https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/04/lack-of-existing-inventory-continues-to-support-builder-sentiment
  13. United State Census Bureau –
    https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
  14. Freddie Mac –
    https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  15. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/instant-reaction-inflation-april-12-2023
  16. CNBC – https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html
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