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Things to Do in Scottsdale – February 2023

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– Scottsdale Area Events in February 2023 –

And the fun keeps coming! February is lining up to be a very exciting month.

Read on to see what fun awaits in Scottsdale and around the Valley!

  • Arizona Balloon Classic – February 3rd – 5th – This amazing festival featuring hot air balloons will take place in Goodyear. Watch the balloons take off in the early hours, explore the balloons as they inflate and deflate and in the evening, watch the balloons glow in time with the music. It will be fun for all ages, plus there is a kite festival and food court.
  • Kierland Commons Art & Wine Festival – February 4th – 5th – Come and enjoy lovely art and wine at Kierland. Over 100 artists will be represented and if you get thirsty, visit the wine garden and listen to live music.
  • Super Bowl Experience – Weekends February 4th – February 11th – The Super Bowl is back in Phoenix! (Congratulations to anyone who has tickets for the big game!) If you want to really get into the excitement, head over to the Phoenix Convention Center for all things football.Run drills and compete in challenges, explore all of the exhibits and more. Kids under 12 are free!
  • Historical Old Town ESPN Main Street Tailgate – February 8th – 12th – Come watch ESPN broadcast  pre-game shows! Plus, there will be games, live music and food for purchase. Click on the link to see the broadcast schedule.
  • Waterfront Fine Art & Wine Festival – February 8th – February 10th – This year will be the 12th anniversary of this fun festival. Over 100 artists will be displaying their work along the Scottsdale Waterfront. Grab a glass of wine (or not!) and enjoy the stroll.
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open– February 6th – 12th – The “Greatest Show on Grass” is back! 132 top golfers will hit the course this year and keep an eye out for notable players like Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Cantlay along with other amazing pros and up-and-coming talent. If you want to continue the fun after the matches, head on over to the Birds Nest.
  • Scottsdale Arabian Horse Show – February 16th – February 26th – The Scottsdale Arabian Horse Show is celebrating its 68th anniversary. There will be exciting competitions, educational sessions, family-friendly activities, a food court as well as shopping with over 300 vendors.
  • Maricopa County Home Show – February 24th – 26th – The Home Show is back at State Farm Arena and is celebrating 30 years. There will be seminars on stage and with master gardeners, landscape consultation, hands-on workshops, vendors, food and so much more.
  • Spring Training – Cactus League – Starts February 24th – The Cactus League is coming back for a new year of Spring Training. Watch your favorite teams play all over the Valley. Play ball!

Disclaimer: Event times and dates may change. Please check with the event organizer.

Scottsdale AZ Luxury Home Market – December 2022

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– Scottsdale Luxury Home Market Performance for December 2022 –

December is usually a pretty quiet month as people are coming off of Thanksgiving and are celebrating the holidays. This December, we saw some areas with decent sales activity, but for the most part, sales performed as expected.

This report covers Scottsdale luxury homes and their sales patterns. We broke the data into four price ranges to show additional detail.

– DECEMBER 2022 –

Scottsdale Homes Priced Between $1,000,000 – $1,499,999

Scottsdale Homes for Sale between $1 and $1.5 million December 2022

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: The number of homes for sale in this price range fell by 24.6% between the end of November and the end of December. We saw a spike in inventory in September and October and have been trending lower since then.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of UCBs was up by one at the end of the month. This is still quite low.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: Pending contracts were up 24.3% after a poor performance in November.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: Home sales fell to their lowest levels of the year. This is not surprising based off the low pending number of contracts in November.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 94.5%- On average, buyers saw a discount of 5.5% off of list price.

Scottsdale Homes Priced Between $1,500,000 – $1,999,999

Scottsdale Homes for Sale between $1.5 and $2 million December 2022

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: Inventory continued to decrease in December.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: UCBs fell to their lowest level of the year. Again, this is not surprising based on the time of year.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of pendings also hit their lowest level of the year.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: And since there were not a lot of contracts in the pipeline at the end of November, sales were also at the lowest level of the year.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 91.1% – On average, buyers saw a discount of 8.9% off of list price.

Scottsdale Homes Priced Between $2,000,000 – $2,999,999

Scottsdale Homes for Sale between $2 and $3 million December 2022

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: Inventory in this price point continues to fall, putting us closer to where were in July and August.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: UCB contracts have remained more or less level over the past three months.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: Pending sales fell of slightly between November and December.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: After a dismal November, sales were up 44.4% in December. This is the best sales month in this price point since around June.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 93.5% – On average, buyers saw a discount of 6.5% off of list price.

Scottsdale Homes Priced $3,000,000+

Scottsdale Homes for Sale over $3 million December 2022

– Active Scottsdale Homes on the Market: Inventory was down 7.1% between the end of November and the end of December.
– UCB Scottsdale Home Sales: UCB contracts had a terrible month, closing out at 8. But, this can be attributed to seasonality.
– Pending Scottsdale Home Sales: Pending sales also had a poor month, coming in the lowest we have seen in the past year.
– Scottsdale Homes Sold: Sales were also off in December. There were 17 sales, down 29.4% from November. Again, December is not usually a big sales month.
– Sales Price to Listed Price: 95.4% – On average, buyers saw a discount of 4.6% off of list price.

If you would like additional detail on home sales activity, please visit our Scottsdale Luxury Home Market Reports page and click on the downloadable “Scottsdale Market Trends” report.

Search Scottsdale Luxury Homes for Sale

Disclaimer: Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 1/1/2023 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at single-family luxury resale homes in Scottsdale AZ over the last 12 months. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This blog represents the opinion of the author. No warranties expressed or implied.
Copyright ©2023 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

Where to Eat in Scottsdale – Fire at Will

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When I heard that Chef Dom Ruggiero had opened another restaurant called Fire at Will, I was excited. We have enjoyed many meals at Hush Public House and were looking forward to seeing what Fire at Will had to offer. 

Fire at Will Restaurant Scottsdale

We were seated promptly by the friendly hostess and our server came right over. Amy was great and came back frequently to check on us. Besides ordering wine, one of my dining partners tried the 75mm, an infused gin drink with prosecco and pear. She enjoyed it immensely.

The menu included a lot of tempting items. You could easily make a meal with the small plates, but we opted to do a combination of small plates and bigger plates.

For starters, we went with the Little Gem, which is a play on a traditional wedge salad. We also had the Clams Casino. They were decadent and delicious. We also ordered Frite Street Fries which came out hot and perfectly seasoned. They come with three homemade sauces including ketchup, an aioli and a ranch dressing.

For entrees, two of us opted for the Salt Spring Mussels which were in a white wine, cream, leek and tarragon broth. The portion size was generous and filling and the grilled bread it came with was outstanding and perfect for dipping in the broth. We also tried the Aglio e Olio Bucatini which had just the right amount of garlic and chili and was brightened up by the addition of lemon and parsley.

Dessert was a shared Fruit Cobbler. The fruit changes with whatever is freshest that day and it comes topped with a scoop of gelato.

There were so many other items we wanted to try, but we could only eat so much!

We really enjoyed our meal and experience at Fire at Will and look forward to many more visits.

Information:
Fire at Will 
4912 E Shea Blvd, #108
Scottsdale, AZ 85254
– Shea and Tatum
Phone: (480) 207-1819
Web: https://www.eatfireatwill.com/

Open daily for dinner service

Phoenix and Scottsdale AZ Luxury Condo Sales – December 2022

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Luxury Condo Sales in Scottsdale and Phoenix – December 2022

We saw inventory fall off quite a bit in December. However, this is not unusual as many listings are set to expire on December 31st, plus people sometimes take their homes off of the market during the holidays. Sales and contracts were on target for this slower time of year as well. 

This report covers Scottsdale and Phoenix luxury condo sales activity. All of these homes had list prices of $1 million or more. 

ACTIVE LISTINGS AT THE END OF DECEMBER

We ended November with fifty-seven luxury condos on the market. At the end of December, there were only forty-six for sale.

The most expensive condo for sale has held this spot for a while. Priced at $4,450,000, this unit is located in the Ascent at the Phoenician community. It has three bedrooms and three and one-half bathrooms and 3,985 square feet. 

The least expensive condo for sale was in Pinnacle Pointe in North Scottsdale. This home has three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,379 square feet and was priced at $1,000,000. 

UCB* LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

All four of the UCB contracts at the end of December were located in Scottsdale. 

UCB Condos in Scottsdale

  • Portico Condominiums– This is a new development in North Scottsdale.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,637,100.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,679,900.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,890,000.
  • Optima Camelview – Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 2,272 square feet. Asking price was $1,689,000.

PENDING LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Pendings were up again by the end of the month to fifty-eight. The vast majority of them were located in Scottsdale in communities currently under development. 

Scottsdale Pending Luxury Condos

  • Optima Kierland – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,846 square feet. Asking price was 1,800,000.
  • Optima Camelview
    • Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,528 square feet. Asking price was $1,049,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,955 square feet. Asking price was $1,750,000.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,918 square feet. Asking price was $1,999,990
  • Portico Scottsdale Condominiums – This is a new development in North Scottsdale.
    • Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,090 square feet. Asking price was $1,056,000.
    • Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,090 square feet. Asking price was $1,188,000.
    • Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,090 square feet. Asking price was $1,188,000.
    • Three bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,090 square feet. Asking price was $1,250,600.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,425,600.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,458,000.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,582,200.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,652,400.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,669,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,695,600.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,396 square feet. Asking price was $1,728,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,738,800.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,814,400.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,814,400.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,768 square feet. Asking price was $1,890,000.
  • The Reserve – This community is under construction.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,004,500.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,011,500.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,012,450.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,026,500.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,063,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,020 square feet. Asking price was $1,075,000.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,159,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,271,450.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,279,900.
  • Ascent at the Phoenician – This is another fantastic development underway.
    • One bedroom, one and one-half bathrooms, 1,698 square feet. Asking price was $1,475,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,847 square feet. Asking price was $1,600,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,374 square feet. Asking price was $2,050,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,679 square feet. Asking price was $2,285,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,679 square feet. Asking price was $2,395,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,867 square feet. Asking price was $3,975,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,100,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,750,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,996 square feet. Asking price was $4,895,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,945 square feet. Asking price was $4,950,000.
  • ICON at Silverleaf – Currently under construction.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $1,995,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,150,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,500,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,625,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,700,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,750,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,800,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 2,752 square feet. Asking price was $2,900,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,900,000.
    • Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $2,995,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,175,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,200,000.
    • Three bedrooms, four bathrooms 3,157 square feet. Asking price was $3,350,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $6,900,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $7,700,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $7,718,000.
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 5,534 square feet. Asking price was $8,000,000
    • Four bedrooms, four and one-half bathrooms, 6,288 square feet. Asking price was $8,350,000. 

Phoenix Pending Luxury Condos

  • One Lexington – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,288 square feet. Asking price was $1,295,000.
  • The Residences at 2211 Camelback – Two bedrooms, three bathrooms, 3,000 square feet. Asking price was $1,250,000.

LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Four luxury condos sold in Scottsdale and Phoenix in December. 

Scottsdale Luxury Condo Sales

  • Optima Kierland
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 1,838 square feet. Asking price was $2,100,000 and it closed for $1,950,000. 
    • Two bedrooms and bathrooms, 1,366 square feet. Asking price was $1,950,000 and it closed for $1,875,000
  • The Reserve -Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,639 square feet. Asking price was $1,150,000 and it closed for list price. 

Phoenix Luxury Condo Sale

Learn More About Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos

Search Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos for Sale

Disclaimer: Days on market figures are cumulative days on market. Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 1/1/2023 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at resale luxury condos in Scottsdale and Phoenix over the past 12 months. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.  There may be new condo inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright ©2023 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

The Truth About Negative Home Equity Headlines

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The Truth About Negative Home Equity Headlines | MyKCM

Home equity has been a hot topic in real estate news lately. And if you’ve been following along, you may have heard there’s a growing number of homeowners with negative equity. But don’t let those headlines scare you.

In truth, the headlines don’t give you all the information you really need to understand what’s happening and at what scale. Let’s break down one of the big equity stories you may be seeing in the news, and what’s actually taking place. That way, you’ll have the context you need to understand the big picture.

Headlines Focus on Short-Term Equity Numbers and Fail To Convey the Long-Term View

One piece of news circulating focuses on the percentage of homes purchased in 2022 that are currently underwater. The term underwater refers to a scenario where the homeowner owes more on the loan than the house is worth. This was a huge issue when the housing market crashed in 2008, but it’s much less significant today.

Media coverage right now is based loosely on a report from Black Knight, Inc. The actual report from that source says this:

“Of all homes purchased with a mortgage in 2022, 8% are now at least marginally underwater and nearly 40% have less than 10% equity stakes in their home, . . .”

Let’s unpack that for a moment and provide the bigger picture. The data-bound report from Black Knight is talking specifically about homes purchased in 2022, but media headlines don’t always mention that timeframe or provide the surrounding context about how unusual of a year 2022 was for the housing market. In 2022, home price appreciation soared, and it reached its max around March-April. Since then, the rate of appreciation has been slowing down.

Homeowners who bought their house last year right at the peak or those who paid more than market value in the months that followed are more likely to fall into the category of being marginally underwater. The qualifier marginally is another key piece of the puzzle the media isn’t necessarily including in their coverage.

So, what does that mean for those who purchased a home in 2022? It’s important to remember, owning a home is a long-term investment, not a short-term play. When headlines focus on the short-term view, they’re not necessarily providing the full context.

Typically speaking, the longer you stay in your home, the more equity you gain as you pay down your loan and as home prices appreciate. With recent market conditions, you may not have gained significant equity right away if you owned the home for just a few months. But it’s also true that many homeowners who recently bought their house are unlikely to be looking to sell quite yet.

Bottom Line

As with everything, knowing the context is important. If you have questions about real estate headlines or about how much equity you have in your home, let’s connect.

WANT TO KNOW HOW MUCH EQUITY YOU HAVE IN YOUR HOME?

Click here for a free analysis!

Quick Video Update of the Scottsdale Real Estate Market – December 2022

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– December 2022 Scottsdale Housing Market Video –

Here is a one-minute video overview of the Scottsdale, Arizona real estate market that covers the month of December.

December 2022 – Video


Scottsdale Active Listings

Scottsdale homes for sale December 2022

We saw another year-over-year jump (117%) in listings. However, to put this in perspective, Scottsdale had incredibly low inventory levels last December. Even now, we are still seeing moderately low inventory.

And the number of homes for sale fell 16% between the end of November and the end of December.

Median List Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median list price December 2022

If you are not familiar with it, the median listing price tells you the price where 50% of the market is priced higher and 50% of the market is priced lower.

The median listing price in Scottsdale in December was $1.3 million. This is up slightly from the previous month’s $1.25 million. But it did fall in comparison to December 2021 where the median listing price was $1.45 million.

Days on Market

Scottsdale homes days on market December 2022

The Days on Market came in at 77 in December, up 71% from December 2021.

Days on Market (DOM) shows you the speed at which homes are selling. If you see a high DOM, that indicates homes are taking longer to sell. Conversely, a low DOM means homes are selling at a faster pace.

Median Sales Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median sales price December 2022

Above, we looked at the median listing price. Now, we will look at the median sales price. Again, 50% of homes sold for a higher price and 50% of homes sold for a lower price.

The median sales price in Scottsdale in December was $933K. It came in lower than December 2021’s $935K as well as the previous month’s $977K.

Number of Homes Sold

This last section looks at home sales on a year-over-year basis and a month-over-month basis. 

Scottsdale home sales December 2021 vs December 2022

December home sales came in the lowest we have seen in the past twelve months.

There were only 239 home sales during the month, down 52% from the December prior. December tends to be a quieter month, but this was pretty quiet.

sScottsdale home sales November versus December 2022

After a slow November, sales pace slowed even more in December. Home sales were down 12% month-over-month.

We hope that you found this video and commentary helpful as you gather more information to make smart informed real estate decisions.

For more Scottsdale real estate information or if you have any questions about the local area, feel free to contact Joyce at (480) 209-7843 or Joyce@LiveBetterinScottsdale.com.

Click to watch other videos on our Live Better in Scottsdale YouTube Channel.

Interested in other stats for our market? Visit our Real Estate Market Update page.

Disclaimer: Data deemed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

2023 Real Estate Market Outlook (And What It Means for You)

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2023 Real Estate Market Outlook

Last year, one factor drove the real estate market more than any other: rising mortgage rates.

In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to pump the brakes on inflation.1 And while some market sectors have been slow to respond, the housing market has reacted accordingly.

Both demand and price appreciation have tapered, as the primary challenge for homebuyers has shifted from availability to affordability. And although this higher-mortgage rate environment has been a painful adjustment for many buyers and sellers, it should ultimately lead to a more stable and balanced real estate market.

So what can we expect in 2023? Will mortgage rates continue to climb? Could home prices come crashing down? While this is one of the more challenging real estate periods to forecast, here’s what several industry experts predict will happen to the U.S. housing market in the coming year.

MORTGAGE RATES WILL FLUCTUATE LESS

In 2022, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from roughly 3% in January to around 7%. According to Rick Sharga of real estate data company ATTOM, “We’ve never seen rates double in so short a period.”2

This year, economists forecast a less dramatic shift.

In an interview with Bankrate, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, shares her vision of three possible mortgage rate scenarios:3

  1. Inflation continues to surge, forcing the Fed to repeatedly raise interest rates. In that scenario, she predicts that rates could reach as high as 8.5%.
  2. Inflation decelerates and mortgage rates follow suit, averaging 7 to 7.5% for the year.
  3. Rising interest rates trigger a recession, which could ultimately lead mortgage rates to drop closer to 5% by the end of the year.

Realtor.com forecasts something similar to scenario #2 above: “Mortgage rates will average 7.4% in 2023, trickling down to 7.1% by year’s end.”4 The Mortgage Bankers Association, however, projects something closer to Evangelou’s scenario #3, with the 30-year fixed rate declining steadily throughout the year, averaging 6.2% in Q1 and 5.2% by Q4.5

Economists at Fannie Mae fall somewhere in the middle. In a recent press release, they predicted that the U.S. economy will experience a “modest recession” this year.6 But in their December Housing Forecast, they project that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will only fall by half a point from an average of 6.5% in Q1 to 6.0% in Q4.7

“From our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.6

What does it mean for you?  Even the experts can’t say for certain where mortgage rates are headed. Instead of trying to ”time the market,” focus instead on buying or selling a home when the time is right for you. There are a variety of mortgage options available that can make a home purchase more affordable, including adjustable rates, points, and buydowns—and keep in mind you can always refinance down the road. We’d be happy to refer you to a trusted mortgage professional who can outline your best options.


SALES VOLUME WILL FALL AND INVENTORY WILL RISE

It looks like the home-buying frenzy we experienced in recent years is behind us. While the desire to own a home remains strong, higher mortgage rates have made it unaffordable for a large segment of would-be buyers.

Many economists expect the number of home sales to continue to decline this year, leading to an increase in listing inventory and days-on-market, or the time it takes to sell a home. But, there is a wide range when it comes to specifics.

Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that total home sales will fall by around 20% this year before rising again by nearly 15% in 2024.7 National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a less extreme dip of 7% in 2023 with a rebound of 10% next year.8

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale foresees something in between. “The deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers. We anticipate that existing home sales will decline another 14.1% in 2023.” She expects this drop in sales to lead to a nearly 23% increase in inventory levels this year, offering more choices for buyers who have struggled to find a home in the past.9

However, given the severe lack of housing supply, even with a double-digit increase, the market is expected to remain relatively tight and below pre-pandemic levels. Hale points out: “It’s important to keep historical context in mind. The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15% short of the 2019 average.”9

What does it mean for you?  If you’ve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And today’s buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Contact us to find out about current and future listings that meet your criteria.

If you’re hoping to sell, you may want to act fast; rising inventory levels will mean increased competition. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.


HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

While some economists expect home prices to fall this year, many expect them to remain fairly stable. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,” said Yun at a November conference.8

Nationally, Yun expects the average median home price to tick up by 1% in 2023, with some markets experiencing greater appreciation and others experiencing declines.8 Economists at Fannie Mae offer a similar projection, forecasting a slight decrease in their Home Price Index of about 1.5%, year-over-year.7

Other experts foresee a larger fluctuation. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.9,10

Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recession—specifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventory—aren’t prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.

What does it mean for you?  It can feel scary to buy a home when there’s uncertainty in the market. However, real estate is a long-term investment that has been shown to appreciate over time. And keep in mind that the best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one we’re experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.

And if you’re planning to sell this year, you’ll want to chart your path carefully to maximize your profits. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in today’s market.

RENT PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB

Affordability challenges for would-be buyers, inflationary pressures, and an overall lack of housing could continue to drive “above-average” rent price increases in much of the country.11 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expects year-over-year rental price growth to tick up to 8.4% in May before moderating later in the year.12

According to Hale, “U.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.”9

However, there are signs that the surge in rent prices could be tapering. According to Jay Parsons, head of economics for rental housing software company RealPage, there’s some evidence of a slowdown in demand. He predicts that market-rate rents will rise just 3.3% this year. Still, analysts agree that a return to lower pre-pandemic rental prices is unlikely.10

What does it mean for you?  Rent prices are expected to keep climbing. But you can lock in a set mortgage payment and build long-term wealth by putting that money toward a home purchase instead. Reach out for a free consultation to discuss your options.

And if you’ve ever thought about purchasing a rental property, now may be a perfect time. Call today to get your investment property search started.

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2023, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

  1. Forbes –
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
  2. Bankrate –
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-december-2022/
  3. Bankrate –
    https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
  4. Realtor.com –
    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2023-the-year-of-the-homebuyer-our-bold-predictions-on-home-prices-mortgage-rates-and-more/
  5. Mortgage Bankers Association –
    https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=b584bf7_1
  6. Fannie Mae –
    https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/economy-still-expected-enter-and-exit-modest-recession-2023
  7. Fannie Mae –
    https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display
  8. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly
  9. Realtor.com –
    https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
  10. The New York Times –
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html
  11. CNBC –
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/how-much-higher-rent-will-go-in-2023-according-to-experts.html
  12. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas –
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816

Scottsdale AZ Single Family Home Sales – December 2022

By

– December 2022 Scottsdale Homes for Sale and Home Sales –

Welcome to the final month of Scottsdale home sales for 2022! December tends to be a quieter month as many people move into holiday mode. And, this December was no different.

SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES ACTIVITY – DECEMBER 2022

Every month, we look at the four sales metrics below to get a sense of how the market is performing.

– Single-family homes for sale – Orange Line – The number of homes on the market at the end of the month.
– Under contract, but accepting backup offers (UCB) – Gray Line – The number of UCB contracts at the end of the month.*
– Pending home sales – Yellow Line -The number of pending sales at the end of the month.*
– Home Sales – Blue Line – The number of homes that sold over the course of the month.

DECEMBER 2022 RESULTS

Scottsdale home sales December 2022
  • Scottsdale Homes for Sale: We saw a significant drop in the number of homes for sale in December, putting us at levels we have not seen since June. A factor in this is people taking their homes off the market during the holidays. We see a lot of these homes return to the market in January.
  • UCB (Under contract, accepting backup offers): UCBs barely made it past 100 in December. This is the lowest it has been in the past year. Again, the holidays play a part in this number every year.
  • Pending Homes Sales in Scottsdale: Pendings also fell to their lowest level in the past year.
  • Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of homes that sold came in at 237. As with UCBs and spending, this is the lowest we saw this figure in 2022, but the holidays definitely play a factor.

This next section includes two more things related to Scottsdale home sales:

Scottsdale real estate market December 2022

Percent Change Month Over Month – This chart compares sales performance on a month-over-month basis. For example, the number of active listings was down 18% at the end of December compared to the end of November.

Sales Price to List Price – This is a simple way to check home prices. It compares the average listing price of homes compared to what the homes ended up selling for. In December, homes sold on average at 94.7% of their asking prices. Or, if you are looking at it from a buyer’s perspective, buyers saw an average discount of 5.3% off of list prices.

*Figures for active homes for sale, UCB sales and pending sales are based on the numbers at the end of the month.

Curious about your buying power? Click on the link to learn more.

Search Scottsdale AZ Homes for Sale

Disclaimer: Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 1/1/2023. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright © 2023 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

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