Scottsdale AZ Real Estate & Lifestyle

Live Better in Scottsdale - eXp Realty

Heather Tawes Nelson

Things To Do In Scottsdale – September 2021

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September is here and that means new things to do in Scottsdale and around the Valley. 

Here are some ideas for things to do in and around Scottsdale for the month of September. 

Immersive Van Gogh Phoenix
  • Immersive Van Gogh Exhibit – Through November – This highly anticipated exhibit is finally open! Learn more about Van Gogh and his life and then step into a fully immersive animated art experience. The experience lasts 40 minutes and you can stay as long as you want.
  • Summer at the Desert Botanical Garden – Ends early September – Come experience the Garden after hours with Flashlight Nights every Saturday or enjoy music and ambiance with the Soronan Sippin‘ events on select dates.
  • Hamilton – September 8th – October 10th – The world-famous show is coming to ASU Gammage this month.
  • Arabian National Breeder Finals – September 15th -18th – WestWorld will be hosting this prestigious event featuring these magestic animals. In addition to the Arabian and Halter horses, shopping and food will be available.
  • Pumpkin Nights at The Princess – September 16th – October 31st – The Fairmont Scottsdale Princess is getting Fall kicked off with Pumpkin Nights. There will be a Pumpkin Patch, a Jack-O-Lantern Lawn & Lane featuring games and fun as well as the Cider Orchard. There are also special offers for stays and spa treatments.
  • Junk in the Trunk Market – September 17th – 19th – Junk in the Trunk is back at WestWorld! Over 130 vendors spread over 120,000 square feet will be selling antique and vintage finds as well as handmade crafts.
  • Arizona Restaurant Week – September 17th -26th – 120 restaurants have signed up to participate in Arizona Fall Restaurant Week. Each restaurant will feature a set menu at great prices. Visit your favorites or discover new restaurants.
  • Gold Over America – September 22nd – You just saw many of these powerful ladies compete in the Tokyo Olympics and now they will be coming to Glendale. Headliner Simone Biles is joined by past teammates and other outstanding gymnasts as they show off their athletic prowess.
  • Oktoberfest in Fountain Hills – September 24th – 25th – Come celebrate Oktoberfest with beer and authentic German food while listening to a German band. There are also contests for the grownups and a Kid Zone for the little ones.
  • Catch an Outdoor Concert – There are a lot of great concerts coming up in September and beyond. Some highlights include Lady A, Pitbull, Jon Pardi, Luke Bryan and Bush with Stone Temple Pilots.
  • Cheer on the Diamondbacks– Throughout September – There are lots of Diamondbacks games throughout the month! This month, they have home games against the Padres, Mariners, Rangers and Braves.
  • Live Music at The District in Desert Ridge – Friday and Saturday nights – All kinds of musical genres will be on the stage in August and beyond. Visit the website to see who will be playing. 
  • Scottsdale’s Museum of the West – If you have not had a chance to visit Western Spirit in Old Town Scottsdale, it should be added to your list. It is home to an impressive collection of western art, history and artifacts.

As always, if you have other events going on that you would like to highlight, please feel free to add them to the comment section. 

Disclaimer: Please check with the event venue to make sure the event is happening as scheduled. Some of these events require a paid ticket and may have safety restrictions in place.

Looking for a Place To Call Home? Consider a Condominium.

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Looking for a Place To Call Home? Consider a Condominium. | MyKCM

It’s no secret that one of the top stories in today’s real estate market is low housing supply and high buyer demand. If you’re a first-time buyer looking for a starter home or are someone who’s interested in downsizing, it may be worth considering a condominium (condo) as a worthwhile option.

Scottsdale and the surrounding areas have a vast number of options for people interested in condos.  You can choose to live in Downtown Scottsdale with all of the dining and shopping, you could go a little further north to the Kierland areas and enjoy a vibrant part of town. Or you could head up to North Scottsdale and enjoy more of a desert setting, while still being close to everything. 

Trends indicate condos are gaining popularity among buyers. In the latest Existing Homes Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the data shows condo sales rising throughout the first half of this year (see graph below):Looking for a Place To Call Home? Consider a Condominium. | MyKCMThere are a few reasons more and more people are opting to buy condos – the benefits of condo life can be quite compelling. Let’s explore the main perks to find out if a condo is a good fit for you.

Affordability

According to the NAR report, the median sales price of a condo is roughly $59,000 less than the median price of a single-family detached home (see graph below). This makes condos a great option for first-time homebuyers, those with limited down payment savings, or those looking to save money by downsizing.Looking for a Place To Call Home? Consider a Condominium. | MyKCM

Maintenance

A recent article from BankRate adds low maintenance as another perk of a condo lifestyle. Generally, exterior maintenance for condos is handled by a Homeowner’s Association (HOA). This can include things like landscaping and upholding a certain standard of cleanliness and condition for walkways, siding, and roofs. If you’re looking for a lower-maintenance option or see the appeal in being hands-off with upkeep, condos may be a good choice for you. With exterior maintenance off your plate, you’ll have more time for yourself and your hobbies.

Amenities

You can use that free time to enjoy some of the value-adding features your condo community may have, which could include dog parks, pools, a rentable clubhouse and cooking and grilling area for events, and more. If being able to host or attend community social outings is important to you, condos may give you more opportunities to enjoy the company of your neighbors. As a bonus, some condos even have gyms and on-site security teams.

Ultimately, the choice is yours. Condos are great options that often come with various features and benefits that may be important for your lifestyle. Fannie Mae sums up the appeal nicely:

“Condominiums, or condos, can be great alternatives to detached homes. City dwellers, singles, couples, seniors, and many others may find condos that suit their needs and budgets. Others may simply prefer low-maintenance living. Buyers who feel ‘priced out’ of homes may discover condos offer an affordable homeownership alternative.”

Bottom Line

If you’re looking for a home, it may be time to consider a condo as an option. Let’s connect to explore if one would be a good fit for your homeownership needs.

 

Phoenix and Scottsdale AZ Luxury Condo Sales – July 2021

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– Luxury Condo Sales in Scottsdale and Phoenix – July 2021 –

July’s luxury condo market for Scottsdale and Phoenix was almost identical to what we saw in June.

This report covers the sales activity of condos with list prices at or above one million dollars.

ACTIVE LISTINGS AT THE END OF JULY

Inventory did not change between June and July. It stayed the same with thirty-eight hones homes for sale.

The highest-priced condo for sale has held this spot for several months. It is 4,817 square foot unit with two bedrooms and three bathrooms in Two Biltmore Estates. It was listed for $3,150,000.

The lowest-priced luxury condo on the market also was a carryover. Located in Esplanade Place in Phoenix, it had two bedrooms and bathrooms and 2,417 square feet. It was listed for $1,025,000.

UCB* LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

The number of UCB contracts also did not change between June and July. There were four in total and they were split equally between Phoenix and Scottsdale.

UCB Condos in Scottsdale

UCB Condos in Phoenix

  • Portland on the Park – Three bedrooms and bathrooms, 2,486 square feet. Asking price was $1,350,000.
  • Esplanade Place – Two bedrooms and three bathrooms, 3,542 square feet. Asking price was $2,200,000.

PENDING LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Similar to June, all of the pending sales at the end of July were located in Scottsdale. There were fifteen pending sales and nine of them were located within the Seven community at Desert Mountain, which is being built out.

Scottsdale Pending Luxury Condos

  • Seven at Desert Mountain
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,515,800.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,530,700.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,536,004.
    • Two bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,702 square feet. Asking price was $1,705,300.
    • Two bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,702 square feet. Asking price was $1,750,300.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,774,200.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,787,350.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,809,900.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,716 square feet. Asking price was $1,835,850.
  • The Reserve – This is a new community that had two pending sales.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,000,113.
    • Three bedrooms and three bathrooms, 2,675 square feet. Asking price was $1,016,000.
  • Safari Drive – Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,055 square feet. Asking price $1,100,000.
  • Optima Kierland
    • Two bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,698 square feet. Asking price was $1,175,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,698 square feet. Asking price was $1,235,000.
    • Two bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,461 square feet. Asking price was $1,399,000.

LUXURY CONDO SALES IN SCOTTSDALE AND PHOENIX

Just like in June, thirteen luxury condos sold. Eleven of them were located in Scottsdale and the remaining two were in Phoenix.

Scottsdale Luxury Condo Sales

  • Seven at Desert Mountain – Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 2,414 square feet. Asking price was $1,547,934 and it sold for $1,435,000.
  • Optima Camelview – There were two sales at Optima Camelview in Downtown Scottsdale.
    • Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, 1,930 square feet. Asking price was $1,250,000 and it sold for $1,130,000.
    • Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms and 3,021 square feet. Asking price was $1,595,000 and it sold for $1,450,000.
  • Optima Kierland – Optima Kierland had four sales in July.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 3,393 square feet. Asking price was $2,075,000 and it sold for $2,025,000.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms and 1,575 square feet. Asking price was $1,349,000 and it sold for list price.
    • Two bedrooms, three bathrooms and 1,581 square feet. Asking price was $1,075,000 and it sold for list price.
    • Two bedrooms and bathrooms and 1,509 square feet. Asking price was $1,445,000 and it sold for $1,400,000.
  • Landmark Condominiums – Landmark had two sales in July.
    • Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 2,845 square feet. Asking price was $1,350,000 and it sold for $1,270,000.
    • Four bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,524 square feet. Asking price was $1,640,000 and it sold for $1,575,000
  • Scottsdale Waterfront Residences – Three bedrooms, three and one-half bathrooms, 3,036 square feet. Asking price was $2,750,000 and it sold for list price.
  • ICON at Silverleaf – Two bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms and 2,689 square feet. Asking price was $2,100,000 and it sold for $2,000,000.

Phoenix Luxury Condo Sales

  • Portland on the Park – Two bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, 2,105 square feet. Asking price was $1,275,000 and it closed for $1,225,000.
  • Residences at 2211 Camelback – Three bedrooms, four bathrooms, 3,904 square feet. Asking price was $1,288,000 and it sold for $1,250,000.

Learn More About Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos

Search Phoenix and Scottsdale Luxury Condos for Sale

Disclaimer: Days on market figures are cumulative days on market. Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 8/1/2021 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at resale luxury condos in Scottsdale and Phoenix over the past 12 months. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.  There may be new condo inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright ©2021 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

5 Factors That Reveal Where The Real Estate Market Is Really Headed

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It’s the old supply-and-demand predicament: Home sales in the U.S. continue at a torrid pace, but the availability of listings remains limited. Buoyed by historically low mortgage rates, buyers keep shopping for homes, reducing the available inventory and sparking a rise in home prices across the country.

News website The Atlantic summarized the sizzling home market this way:

“Pick a housing statistic at random, and it’s probably setting an all-time record. Home prices: record high. Inventory: record low. Percentage of homes selling above asking price: record high. Average time on market: record low.”¹

Meanwhile, homebuilders are contending with an increase in material costs and a shortage of labor. These issues come amid an ongoing shortage of housing. A study commissioned by the National Association of Realtors found the U.S. is coping with a deficit of about 2 million single-family homes and about 3.5 million other housing units.²

 So what can we expect from U.S. real estate? Here are five factors that illustrate where the housing market is today and is likely heading tomorrow.

 

ROCK-BOTTOM MORTGAGE RATES TO GRADUALLY RISE

 Low interest rates continue to fuel demand from homebuyers. Some experts believe mortgage rates will creep up later this year, but they expect rates to remain near historic lows.3 However, the Federal Reserve signaled in mid-June that it may institute two interest rate hikes as soon as 2023, which could then trigger a more substantial uptick in mortgage rates.4

In June, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 2020 closed with the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage sitting at 2.8%. But the association anticipates the average rate climbing to 3.5% at the end of 2021 and 4.2% by the end of 2022.5

“As the economy progresses and inflation remains elevated, we expect that rates will continue to gradually rise in the second half of the year,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.6

 

What does it mean for you?

You’ve likely heard the old saying about “striking while the iron is hot.” Well, that phrase applies to the current environment for mortgage rates. It’s impossible to predict with certainty when mortgage rates will rise or fall. So, when mortgage rates are at or near historic lows (as they are today), you should seriously consider taking advantage of those rates to borrow money for a home purchase or to refinance your existing mortgage.

 

HOME PRICES EXPECTED TO KEEP CLIMBING

Low mortgage rates are sparking interest among homebuyers, but some are running into affordability issues.

In June, the national median list price for a home reached an all-time high of $385,000, up 12.7% on a year-over-year basis.7 And according to the Home Buying Institute, various reports and forecasts indicate home prices will keep climbing throughout 2021 and into 2022.8

While this may be welcome news for homeowners, high prices are pushing homeownership out of reach for a growing number of first-time buyers. In a recent CoreLogic survey, 82% of respondents listed housing affordability as a key problem.9

“Younger and first-time buyers, including younger millennials, are faced with the challenge of having sufficient savings for a down payment, closing costs and cash reserves,” said Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic. “As we look to the balance of 2021, we expect price rises to continue which could very well push prospective buyers out of the market in many areas and slow home price growth over the next year.”9

 

What does it mean for you?

 If you’re a buyer waiting on the sidelines for prices to drop, you may want to reconsider. While the pace of appreciation should taper off, home prices are expected to continue climbing. And rising mortgage rates will only make a home purchase more expensive.

 

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES REMAIN ROBUST

While record-high prices are sidelining some buyers, the impressive pace of single-family home sales marches on.

Single-family home sales are down from their peak in October 2020 yet are still above the overall level last year. In May 2021, 5.8 million existing single-family homes were sold in the U.S. That’s a 45% increase over the 4 million homes sold in May 2020.10

However, home sales saw a 0.9% dip in May 2021 compared with the previous month, the National Association of Realtors says. That was the fourth straight month for a decline in home sales. The number of home sales has slid recently because of rising prices coupled with a shortage of available homes amid intense demand.10

Fannie Mae expects total home sales to tick up slightly in the fourth quarter and finish the year up 3.8% over last year. They also forecast a slight decline of 2.2% in sales volume in 2022.11

 

What does it mean for you?

The market for single-family home sales remains quite active. As a result, if you’re a homeowner, you may want to ponder whether to sell now, even if you hadn’t necessarily been thinking about doing so. With demand high and inventory low, your home could fetch an eye-popping price.

 

LACK OF INVENTORY STILL CONSTRAINS THE HOME MARKET

According to the National Association of Realtors, in May there were 1.23 million previously owned homes on the market, down 20.6% from the same time last year.10 This translates to a 2.5-month supply of homes, which is well below the 6 months of inventory typically seen in a balanced market.10,12

According to the Realtors group, this lack of inventory translates into tougher searches for buyers and contributes to a rise in prices.10

“Demand for bigger and more expensive accommodations amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which has left millions of Americans still working from home, is driving a housing market boom. The inventory of previously owned homes is near record lows,” according to Reuters.13

 

What does it mean for you?

 If you’re thinking of selling your home, now may be the right time to do it. Across the country, it’s a seller’s market, meaning demand is outpacing supply. That supply-and-demand imbalance puts sellers in a great position to sell their homes at a premium price. The May 2021 Realtors Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors found the average home that was sold attracted five offers, and the association says nearly half of homes are selling above list price.14,15

 

CONSTRUCTION OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES SEES SLIGHT UPTICK

Frustrated buyers may soon find some relief, however, from an increase in new construction. Economists forecast that 1.1 million new houses will be started in 2021, compared with a predicted 940,000 units just six months ago, with 1.2 million new starts predicted for 2022 and 2023, according to the Urban Land Institute.16

Amid the rise in home construction, builders are coping with rising costs for materials. In April, the National Association of Home Builders estimated that a surge in lumber prices over the previous year had led to $35,872 being tacked onto the cost of an average new single-family home.17

“Shortages of materials and labor have builders struggling to increase production of new homes, though the demand remains strong,” Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told the Reuters news service. “Potential homebuyers should expect tight inventories and rising prices for both new and existing homes for the foreseeable future.”18

Builders (and buyers) did receive some good news in June, though: Lumber prices are coming down—although likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future.19

 

What does it mean for you?

Given the issues affecting the new-home market, it may make sense to widen your home search to include both new and existing homes. Your brand-new dream home may not be available, but you might be able to find an existing home that lives up to your vision. Keep in mind that we can help you find either a new or existing home and can advocate for you to ensure you get the best deal possible.

 

ARE YOU THINKING OF BUYING OR SELLING?

If you’re in the market for a home, you’re ready to sell your house or you’ve simply been wondering whether you should sell, you definitely could benefit from an expert to help you navigate the sizzling hot real estate market.

Let’s set up a free consultation to discuss your situation. We can help you figure out your options and come up with a plan to capitalize on the value of your current property or to find your ideal next home.

 

Sources:

  1. The Atlantic –
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/us-housing-market-records/619029/
  2. Wall Street Journal – https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-market-needs-5-5-million-more-units-says-new-report-11623835800
  3. Time –
    https://time.com/nextadvisor/mortgages/mortgage-predictions-2021/
  4. Bankrate –
    https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/fomc-meeting-recap-june-2021/
  5. Mortgage Bankers Association – https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-commentary/mortgage-finance-forecast-archives
  6. Associated Press News –
    https://apnews.com/press-release/globe-newswire/mortgages-mortgage-rates-business-0fc0360d0f4af0c988504385fa2794c3
  7. com –
    https://www.realtor.com/research/june-2021-data/
  8. Home Buying Institute –
    https://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/home-prices-will-keep-rising-through-2021/
  9. DS News –
    https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/07-06-2021/record-high-home-prices-intensify-affordability-challenges
  10. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-experience-slight-skid-of-0-9-in-may
  11. Fannie Mae –
    https://www.fanniemae.com/media/40561/display
  12. Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University –
    https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/documents/articles/2046-7.pdf
  13. Reuters –
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-housing-starts-rise-less-than-expected-may-building-permits-fall-2021-06-16/
  14. National Association of Realtors – https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/realtors-confidence-index
  15. Realtor magazine –
    https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/05/17/report-half-of-homes-sell-above-list-price
  16. Urban Land Magazine – https://urbanland.uli.org/capital-markets/uli-forecast-sees-increased-improvement-in-outlook-for-u-s-economy-2/
  17. National Association of Home Builders – https://eyeonhousing.org/2021/04/higher-lumber-costs-add-more-than-35k-to-new-home-prices-119-to-monthly-rent/
  18. Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-housing-starts-rise-less-than-expected-may-building-permits-fall-2021-06-16/
  19. NPR – https://www.npr.org/2021/06/21/1008843212/lumber-prices-are-finally-dropping-after-they-soared-during-the-pandemic

 

Quick Video Update of the Scottsdale Real Estate Market – July 2021

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– July 2021 Scottsdale Housing Market Video –

July had strong home sales, but we did see a little slowdown in the frenzy of activity.

Here is a one-minute video overview of the Scottsdale, Arizona real estate market that covers the month of July.

July 2021 – Video

Scottsdale Active Listings

Scottsdale homes for sale July 2021

Inventory is still low across Scottsdale and the Valley. However, it has been climbing slowly over the past few months.

There were 609 homes for sale at the end of the month, coming in 45% lower than June 2020.

Median List Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median list price July 2021

If you are not familiar with the median list price, it represents the midpoint list price of all of the homes for sale. Therefore, one half of the homes are priced higher and one half are priced lower.

The median list price in July was $1.2 million. This is down slightly from June’s $1.25 million, but is higher than July 2020’s $1.11 million.

Days on Market

Scottsdale homes days on market July 2021

Days on Market (DOM) is a metric that gives you an indication of how quickly homes are selling. If you see a large number, that means it is taking longer for homes to sell. A small number indicates that homes are selling quickly.

The DOM for Scottsdale in July was 35 days, which is where it was in June. This is down 58% from July 2020 where it was 83.

Median Sales Price for Scottsdale Homes

Scottsdale homes median sales price July 2021

Similar to the median list price, the median sales is the midpoint price of the homes that sold.

Scottsdale’s median sales price was $850K. This is a drop from June 2021’s $877K. However, it is up quite sharply from July 2020’s $695K.

Number of Homes Sold

Finally, we will cover home sales.

Scottsdale Home Sales July 2020 versus 2021

There were 519 home sales in July. If we look at this on a year-over-year basis, sales were down 10% from July 2020. Low inventory could have a play in this lower sales figure.

Scottsdale home sales June and July 2021

Comparing July 2021 to June 2021, sales were down 14%. As I mentioned last month, I think this decrease may be a combination of Iow inventory and higher prices combined with a little seasonality.

We hope that you found this video and commentary helpful as you gather more information to make smart informed real estate decisions.

For more Scottsdale real estate information or if you have any questions about the local area, feel free to contact Joyce at (480) 209-7843 or Joyce@LiveBetterinScottsdale.com.

Click to watch other videos on our Live Better in Scottsdale YouTube Channel.

Interested in other stats for our market? Visit our Real Estate Market Update page.

Disclaimer: Data deemed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures

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4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures | MyKCM

With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago.

What is mortgage forbearance? Click here for a definition.

Here are four reasons why that won’t happen.

1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time

After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.

As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Many experts projected 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now down to 3.5%.

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 1,863,000. That’s definitely a large number, but nowhere near 9.3 million.

2. Most of the 1.86M in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home

Of the 1.86 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 87% have at least 10% equity in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.

The remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the annual foreclosure numbers of the three years leading up to the pandemic:

  • 2017: 314,220
  • 2018: 279,040
  • 2019: 277,520

The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.

3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market

When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than 3 months of inventory on the market.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:

“Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”

4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures

Just last Friday, the White House released a fact sheet explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:

  • “For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower.”
  • “The new steps the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) are announcing will aim to provide homeowners with a roughly 25% reduction in borrowers’ monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes and build equity long-term. This brings options for homeowners with mortgages backed by HUD, USDA, and VA closer in alignment with options for homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

When evaluating the four reasons above, it’s clear there won’t be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down.

Bottom Line

As Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm Zelman & Associates, notes:

“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”

Scottsdale AZ Single Family Home Sales – July 2021

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-July 2021 Scottsdale Homes for Sale and Home Sales –

Home sales keep plugging along in Scottsdale. However, we are seeing lower sales numbers and fewer contracts. On a positive note for buyers, inventory has been increasing (although slightly).

SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES ACTIVITY – JULY 2021

Each month, we track the four sales metrics seen below:

– Single-family homes for sale – Orange Line – How many homes were for sale at the end of the month.
– Under contract, but accepting backup offers (UCB) – Gray Line – How many homes were in UCB status at the end of the month.*
– Pending home sales – Yellow Line – How many pending contracts there were at the end of the month.*
– Home Sales – Blue Line – How many homes were sold during the month.

JULY 2021 RESULTS

Scottsdale home sales July 2021
  • Scottsdale Homes for Sale: Inventory was up another 6% by the end of the month. This is not a huge increase, but it is good news for the large number of homebuyers looking to purchase. We are still at very low inventory levels. For instance, in the $1 million and under price point, the number of sales compared to the number of homes listed, came in at 148.8%.
  • UCB (Under contract, accepting backup offers): UCBs were up very slightly at the end of July, however, this lower than we have been seeing over the past year.
  • Pending Homes Sales in Scottsdale: Pending sales were down to the lowest level we have seen in the past year. They have been falling off since the high in March.
  • Scottsdale Home Sales: The number of home sales was down to 520 in July. This is the lowest we have seen in the past year, but it is still a decent performance for a summer month.

Here are two more metrics we track on a monthly basis:

Scottsdale housing market July 2021

Percent Change Month Over Month – This gives you an idea of how things are performing relative to the previous month. For example, pending sales were down 22.4% in July compared to June.

Sales Price to List Price – This compares average sales prices with the average asking prices of homes. In July, home buyers were seeing a discount off of list price of only 0.5%. Homes with list prices up to $1.5 million came in at 100%.

*Figures for active homes for sale, UCB sales and pending sales are based on the numbers at the end of the month.

Curious about your buying power? Click on the link to learn more.

Search Scottsdale AZ Homes for Sale

Here is a sampling of some of the homes on the market, or click the link above to see all of the homes for sale.

Disclaimer: Data and information were pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 8/1/2021. Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes. This post represents the opinion of the author. No warranties express or implied.
Copyright © 2021 Heather Tawes Nelson | Joyce Tawes

A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers

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A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers | MyKCM

One of the hottest topics of conversation in today’s real estate market is the shortage of available homes. Simply put, there are many more potential buyers than there are homes for sale. 

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the Scottsdale and Phoenix markets are suffering from incredibly low inventory, although we are just starting to see the number of homes for sale creep up slowly. 

As a seller, you’ve likely heard that low supply is good news for you. It means your house will get more attention, and likely, more offers. But as life begins to return to normal, you may be wondering if that’s something that will change.

While it may be tempting to blame the pandemic for the current inventory shortage, the pandemic can’t take all the credit. While it did make some sellers hold off on listing their houses over the past year, the truth is the low supply of homes was years in the making. Let’s take a look at the root cause and what the future holds to uncover why now is still a great time to sell.

Where Did the Shortage Come From?

It’s not just today’s high buyer demand. Our low supply goes hand-in-hand with the number of new homes built over the past decades. According to Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Data in a recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) tells the same story. New home construction has been lagging behind the norm for quite some time. Historically, builders completed an average of 1.5 million new housing units per year. However, since the housing bubble in 2008, the level of new home construction has fallen off (see graph below):A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers | MyKCMThe same NAR report elaborates on the impact of this below-average pace of construction:

“. . . the underbuilding gap in the U.S. totaled more than 5.5 million housing units in the last 20 years.” 

“Looking ahead, in order to fill an underbuilding gap of approximately 5.5 million housing units during the next 10 years, while accounting for historical growth, new construction would need to accelerate to a pace that is well above the current trend, to more than 2 million housing units per year. . . .”

That means if we build even more new houses than the norm every year, it’ll still take a decade to close the underbuilding gap contributing to today’s supply-and-demand mix. Does that mean today’s ultimate sellers’ market is here to stay?

We’re already starting to see an increase in new home construction, which is great news. But newly built homes can’t bridge the supply gap we’re facing right now on their own. In the State of the Nation’s Housing 2021 Report, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) says:

“…Although part of the answer to the nation’s housing shortage, new construction can only do so much to ease short-term supply constraints. To meet today’s strong demand, more existing single-family homes must come on the market.”

Early Indicators Show More Existing-Home Inventory Is on Its Way

When we look at existing homes, the latest reports signal that housing supply is growing gradually month-over-month. This uptick in existing homes for sale shows things are beginning to shift. Based on recent data, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, has this to say:

“It looks like existing inventory is starting to inch up, which is good news for a housing market parched for more supply.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, echoes that sentiment:

“As the inventory is beginning to pick up ever so modestly, we are still facing a housing shortage, but we may have turned a corner.”

So, what does all of this mean for you? Just because life is starting to return to normal, it doesn’t mean you missed out on the best time to sell. It’s not too late to take advantage of today’s sellers’ market and use rising equity and low interest rates to make your next move.

The Scottsdale and Phoenix markets may be slowing slightly, but we will remain firmly in a sellers market for the foreseeable future.

Bottom Line

It’s still a great time to sell. Even though housing supply is starting to trend up, it’s still hovering near historic lows. Let’s connect to discuss how you can list your house now and use the inventory shortage to get the best possible terms for you.

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