The numbers for October 2008 are in and it was another disappointment for the Scottsdale real estate market. We have been seeing home sales and pending home sales trending down for a few months and now we are seeing the number of homes for sale inch up after several months of promising declines.
| Trend Analysis – Scottsdale Single-Family Homes – Resale | |||||||||||||
| All Price Points | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2008 | ||||||||||||
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Avg. | |
| Active | 3,950 | 3,743 | 4,154 | 4,254 | 4,304 | 4,249 | 4,063 | 3,941 | 3,872 | 3,839 | 3,839 | 3,969 | 4,338 |
| Pending | 235 | 191 | 262 | 287 | 312 | 349 | 364 | 338 | 327 | 300 | 297 | 247 | 305 |
| Sold | 168 | 190 | 187 | 227 | 246 | 270 | 300 | 321 | 286 | 274 | 235 | 228 | 264 |
| Percent Change- Month Over Month | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2008 | ||||||||||||
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | ||
| Active | 1.9% | -5.2% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | -1.3% | -4.4% | -3.0% | -1.8% | -0.9% | 0.0% | 3.4% | |
| Pending | 56.7% | -18.7% | 37.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 4.3% | -7.1% | -3.3% | -8.3% | -1.0% | -16.8% | |
| Sold | -28.8% | 13.1% | -1.6% | 21.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.0% | -10.9% | -4.2% | -14.2% | -3.0% | |
October Highlights:
– The number of active homes for sale increased for the first time since March 2008 to 3969, a 3.4% increase over September. This figure is still well below the 12 month rolling average of 4,338.
– Pending homes dropped 16.8% in October to 247. The highest number of pending homes was seen in May 2008 with 364 and has been decreasing every month since then.
– There were 228 homes sales in October, a 3% decrease over September. This figure has been steadily decreasing since the high of 321 in June 2008.
– The average sales price to list price ratio for October was 92.1%, meaning that on average, homes sold for 8% less than the average asking price. This percentage has been hovering in the low 90’s over the last twelve months.
The fact that the October numbers were down is not surprising since we have been experiencing significant market volatility and capital constriction. Unfortunately, based on the pending figures, it seems November sales will be down as well. Hopefully, pending sales can gain some momentum in the coming months and the inventory of homes for sale will remain at the current level or a decreased level.
Disclaimer:
Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data pulled from Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) and can change at any time. Data covers the last twelve months of activity and only includes Scottsdale single-family resale homes. This blog represents the opinion of the author. No warranties implied or expressed. Copyright © 2008 Heather Tawes Nelson
